000 AGXX40 KNHC 150751 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 310 AM EST TUE DEC 15 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W UPPER LEVELS... BROAD UPPER ANTICYCLONE COVERS MUCH OF THE AREA...CENTERED OVER WRN CUBA/FLORIDA STRAITS EXTENDING SE ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES TO ABOUT 55W. TUTT AXIS EXTENDS FROM BROAD UPPER CYCLONE OVER THE NE ATLC...SW TO 16N40W TO 12N51W TO 10N64W TO MID-UPPER LOW NEAR 15N91W. STRONG MID-UPPER CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE SE AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WAS INDUCING BROAD SUBSIDENCE EXTENDING NW TO 80W. A SHARP UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE WRN U.S. WAS DRAGGING AN ASSOCIATED SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE THAT EXTENDED SW ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA AND TO THE ITCZ NEAR 130W. THIS SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY THEN BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...ALLOWING FOR LOW TO MID LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE NW GULF THU-FRI. MODELS RESPOND BY FORECASTING A SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOPING ALONG LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THERE...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MINIMAL GALES...THAT WILL TRACK ENE ACROSS N FLORIDA FRI NIGHT AND INTO THE WRN ATLC OVER THE WEEKEND. SURFACE... A WEAKENING ATLC RIDGE EXTENDED FROM A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 26N63W EXTENDING NW TO THE GEORGIA COAST...AND E ALONG 27N TO 45W. FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WERE DRAPED TO THE NW AND SE OF THIS RIDGE...ONE COLD FRONT JUST TO THE N OF THE FORECAST AREA EXTENDING W ALONG 31/32N TO S LOUISIANA AND SE TEXAS...AND ANOTHER OLD COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM DEEP LAYERED LOW OVER NE ATLC TO 21N40W THEN CONTINUING WSW AS A SHEAR LINE TO THE NE CARIBBEAN AND PUERTO RICO. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH STRONG N-NE WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE NORTH OF THE FRONT SPILLING S ALONG THE FAR WRN GULF. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL NOT PUSH SOUTH BUT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES...FORCING THE FRONT S AND SE ONLY TO ABOUT 24/25N ACROSS THE GULF...AND THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA TO JUST N OF THE NW BAHAMAS BEFORE DISSIPATING THERE THU NIGHT. MODELS NOW ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS THE NW GULF THU...AS INDICATED ABOVE...WITH STRONG WINDS... POTENTIALLY TO GALE FORCE...WEST AND NORTH OF THE TROUGH. THIS LOW THEN TRACKS EAST AND CROSSES CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY FRIDAY WITH THE MODELS STRENGTHENING THE LOW FURTHER NE IN THE ATLANTIC WITH A LARGE AREA OF GALES NEAR THE LOW AS IT LIFTS OUT TO THE NE SUN-MON. TRADES ARE ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND ADJACENT ATLC WITH MINIMAL GALES CONTINUING IN THE SOUTH PART NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE WINDS SHOULD FALL TO LESS THAN GALE FORCE DURING TUESDAY BUT REMAIN UP TO 30 KNOTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW FORMS NORTH OF THE AREA TRADES WILL DIMINISH WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE CARIBBEAN FRIDAY AND BY LATE SATURDAY EXTEND FROM EAST CUBA TO THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN. LARGE N TO NW SWELL ARE CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE ATLC E OF 70W...WITH PEAK ENERGY WILL E OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHERE SEAS AREA 12-25 FT E OF 50W. STRONG TRADES AND GALES OFF THE COLOMBIA COAST ARE PRODUCING SEAS 10-15 FT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 72W AND 83W WHICH WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY FADE LATE TUESDAY AS WINDS DIMINISH. LOOK FOR SEAS ACROSS THE NW AND WRN GULF TO BUILD TO 12 FT AND GREATER AS EARLY AS WED MORNING SPREADING S IN N SWELLS INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY THU NIGHT. WARNINGS... ATLC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... .AMZ084 AND AMZ086...GALE WARNING S OF 14N BETWEEN 72W AND 77W. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING