000 AGXX40 KNHC 131945 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 PM EST SUN DEC 13 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT FROM NEAR MOBILE ALABAMA SW TO 25N95W WHERE IT BECOMES A STATIONARY FRONT INTO THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED QUITE AN EXTENSIVE COVERAGE OF LOW CLOUDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF NW OF THE FRONT WITH WIDESPREAD AREAS OF FOG SLOW IN BURNING OFF ALONG THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTAL PLAINS. BOTH RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED ALONG AND WITHIN ABOUT 120 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 25N. TO THE E OF THE FRONT... ATLC RIDGING EXTENDS W INTO THE AREA ALONG 27N. LATEST BUOY DATA AND A FEW SHIP REPORTS INDICATED SLY WINDS OF 10-15 KT AND VARIABLE MOSTLY N-NE WINDS OF 5-10 KT BEHIND THE FRONT. SEAS HAVE LOWERS TO THE 2-4 FT RANGE WITH SEA STATE ANALYSIS REVEALING A MAXIMUM OF 5 FT NEAR 26N90W. MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE E N OF 25N WHILE BECOMING AS UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN U.S. LIFTS NE. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SE-S OVER THE WESTERN PORTION MON AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. NWP MODELS FROM THIS MORNING'S RUN ARE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY'S IN SUGGESTING THAT THE RIDGE RETREATS EASTWARD TUE AND WED...HOWEVER A BIT FASTER WITH COLD FRONT NOW MOVING INTO THE NW GULF TUE MORNING OR AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY A SURGE OF INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE. THESE WINDS THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION WED NIGHT AND THU AND BECOME RATHER LIGHT BY DAY 5 AS THE FRONT THEN WEAKENS FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE 12 UTC RUNS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...WITH THE NOGAPS BEING THE OUTLIER IN SHOWING THE LOW MOVING FROM W CUBA INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FRI..SUGGEST THAT LOW PRES MAY FORMS ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE WESTERN BEGINNING LATE THU INTO FRI AND MOVE TO THE E GULF BY LATE FRI. EVEN THE 12 UTC NAM HINTS AT SOMETHING SIMILAR. FOR THIS FORECAST WILL MENTION POSSIBLE LOW MAY FORM FRI ALONG FRONT...AND WAIT FOR FUTURE MODEL TO SEE IF THEY CONTINUE TO DEPICT THIS SCENARIO WITH THE LOW...AND EVEN CONSISTENCY BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SEAS MAX OUT TO 11 FT BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE SE GULF WITH THE UKMET SHOWING HIGHER SEAS UP TO 11 FT OVER THE FAR W PORTION OF THE SW GULF BEHIND THE FRONT ON WED THEN LOWER TO 9 FT LATE THU AND TO LESS THAN 8 FT FRI. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS W OF 55W... GALE WARNING FOR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN S OF 14N BETWEEN 72W AND 77W IS EXPECTED TO LAST INTO MON NIGHT... BUT COULD VERY WELL PULSATE A LITTLE LONGER GIVEN THE STRONG GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGING TO THE N OF THE AREA AND LOWER PRES OVER S AMERICA. VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THROUGHOUT THE DAY HAS BEEN SHOWING VERY FAST MOTION TO LOW-LEVEL CLOUD MOTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. WINDS ELSEWHERE ARE 20-30 KT OVER CENTRAL PORTION OF THE SEA...AND 20-25 KT S OF 19N BETWEEN 67W-82W AND OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC S OF ABOUT 18N. SEAS HAVE BUILD TO 15 FT IN THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...AND WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE NEXT 3 DAYS BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING. WINDS INCREASE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN E OF ABOUT 83W AND TROPICAL N ATLC TONIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT AS HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA BUILDS SOUTHWARD. SEAS WILL BE HIGH...UP TO 11 FT IN MIXED N AND E SWELL. SW N ATLC W OF 55W... LATEST VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT FROM 23N65W TO 25N72W THEN A WARM FRONT TO 31N79W TO THE SE OF THE FRONT A RIDGE IS ALONG 24N E OF 67W AND SLIDING E OF THE AREA. STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS SE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. ATLC RIDGE THEN BUILDS ALONG 27N MON AND TUE...AND SHIFTS TO THE NE PART BY EARLY WED AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED FOLLOWED BY STRONG HIGH PRES AND NORTHERLY WINDS. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 24N65W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY LATE THU INTO FRI AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS S INTO THE AREA AS MODELS SHOW. WARNINGS... ATLC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... .AMZ084 AND AMZ086...GALE WARNING S OF 14N BETWEEN 72W AND 77W GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE