000 AGXX40 KNHC 121951 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 PM EST SAT DEC 12 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NW TO 27N85W WHERE IT BECOMES A WARM FRONT TO A 1015 MB LOW NEAR 27N96W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SSW FROM THE LOW TO NEAR 21N97W. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS QUITE AN EXTENSIVE COVERAGE OF MOSTLY LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF...ALONG AND N OF THE WARM AND STATIONARY FRONTS AND W OF THE COLD FRONT WITH AREAS OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE MIDDLE GULF AND FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE NW GULF. OVER THE FAR NE PORTION...ATLC RIDGING PROTRUDES SW INTO THAT AREA ALLOWING FOR A SOMEWHAT TIGHT PRES GRADIENT TO CONTINUE OVER THE MIDDLE GULF ZONE N OF THE FRONT. LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND A FEW SHIP REPORTS INDICATE E-SE WINDS OF 15-20 KT N OF THE FRONT E OF 90W...WITH SE-S WINDS OF 20-25 KT BETWEEN 87W-90W. S OF THE FRONT...E-SE WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE NOTED E OF 90W WITH SE-S 10-15 KT IN THE SW GULF. W-N 10-15 KT WINDS ARE W OF THE COLD FRONT BUT WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT. SEAS ARE IN THE 5-8 FT RANGE WITH SEA STATE ANALYSIS REVEALING A MAXIMUM OF 9-10 FT NEAR 28N89W. LOOKING OVER LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THIS MORNING...WARM FRONT WILL LIFT N OVERNIGHT AND INTO SAT MORNING AS THE LOW TRACKS NNE WHILE WEAKENING. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW EXTEND FROM NEAR THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE SW TO NEAR S TEXAS BY SUN EVENING. THE FRONT DISSIPATES MON MORNING AS ATLC HIGH PRES RIDGING THEN BUILDS SW ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF...AND MUCH OF THE MIDDLE GULF. WINDS WILL BE 10-15 KT OVER THE AREA SUN NIGHT THROUGH LATE MON...THEN VEER AROUND TO THE S AND SW-W OVER THE WESTERN PORTION MON AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. GLOBAL MODELS AND EVEN THE REGIONAL NAM SUGGEST THAT THE HIGH THEN RETREATS EASTWARD TUE AND WED AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE NW GULF MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING FOLLOWED BY A SURGE OF INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE. THESE WINDS THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION LATE WED INTO THU. WAVEWATCH MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE NWW3...UKMET AND NAH SUGGEST THAT SEAS WILL BRIEFLY MAX OUT TO 8-9 FT BEHIND THIS FRONT OVER THE NW AND MIDDLE GULF WITH THE UKMET SHOWING HIGHER SEAS UP TO 11 FT OVER THE FAR W PORTION OF THE SW ON THU. WILL SHOW SEAS PEAKING UP TO 11 FT IN THE SW GULF FOR TUE AND TO 10 FT IN THE MIDDLE GULF N OF THE FRONT ON THU...BUT MAY BE SHORT-LIVED. THE FRONT WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN WATERS FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE ON WED AND THU WITH RIDGING TO THE N SLIDING EASTWARD ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO WEAKEN OVER MUCH OF THE GULF EXCEPT FOR THE E PORTION. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS W OF 55W... GALE WARNING ISSUED THIS MORNING FOR THE SW PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN S OF 14N BETWEEN 71W AND 78W IS FORECAST TO LAST INTO AT LEAST EARLY SUN EVENING...BUT COULD VERY WELL LAST LONGER AS RIDGING TO THE N OF THE AREA IN COMBINATION WITH LOWER PRES OVER S AMERICA MAINTAINS A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT. VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THROUGHOUT THE DAY HAS BEEN SHOWING VERY FAST MOTION TO LOW-LEVEL CLOUD MOTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. WINDS ELSEWHERE ARE 20-30 KT OVER CENTRAL PORTION OF THE SEA...AND 20-25 KT S OF 19N BETWEEN 67W-82W AND OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC S OF ABOUT 18N. SEAS HAVE BUILD TO 14 FT IN THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...AND WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE NEXT 3 DAYS BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING. WINDS INCREASE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN E OF ABOUT 83W AND TROPICAL N ATLC TONIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT AS HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA BUILDS SOUTHWARD. SEAS WILL BE HIGH...UP TO 11 FT IN MIXED N AND E SWELL. SW N ATLC W OF 55W... LATEST VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COLD FRONT FROM 26N65W SW TO 25N70W...THEN STATIONARY TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BUOYS REPORTS FROM 41012 AND 41009 BEHIND THE FRONT ARE REPORTING E WINDS OF 20 KT WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 8 FT. TO THE SE OF THE FRONT A RIDGE IS ALONG 24N E OF 67W AND SLIDING E OF THE AREA. LATEST MODELS AGREES THAT FRONT WILL PUSH TO THE FAR SE WATERS OVERNIGHT...WHILE THE PORTION W OF THE BAHAMAS LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHWARD AND DISSIPATES BY EARLY SUN MORNING. STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS SE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. A LOW FORMS OFF THE SE U.S.COAT TONIGHT...THEN TRACKS NE WHILE PULLING THE FRONT TO N OF THE AREA SUN NIGHT. ATLC THEN BUILDS ALONG 27N MON AND TUE...AND SHIFTS TO THE NE PART BY EARLY WED AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST TUE NIGHT INTO WED FOLLOWED BY STRONG HIGH PRES AND NORTHERLY WINDS. WARNINGS... ATLC... NONE. CARIBBEAN...CORRECTED .AMZ084 AND AMZ086...GALE WARNING S OF 14N BETWEEN 71W AND 78W GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE