000 AGXX40 KNHC 120812 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 310 AM EST SAT DEC 12 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STRUNG ACROSS THE GULF...THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS NW TOWARDS THE NW GULF AND INTO A 1014 MB LOW NEAR 27N96W...WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDING S FROM LOW THEN W INTO MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO. OVERRIDING MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN SW TO WLY FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE BKN-OVC SKIES N OF THE OLD BOUNDARY...WITH WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM PRECIP WITH EMBEDDED ELEVATED CVNTN EXTENDING WELL INLAND ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES...AND ISOLATED TO SCT CONVECTION FARTHER S AND OFFSHORE OF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS. RECENT ASCAT PASSES ACROSS THE GULF SHOWED ELY FLOW OF 20-25 KT N OF THE FRONT E OF 90W....AND 25-30 KT FROM 90W TO 94.5W. DESPITE THE ABUNDANCE OF WIND OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THIS REGION...THERE ARE SURPRISINGLY FEW WAVE HEIGHT OBS AVAILABLE THIS MORNING TO CONFIRM WWIII FORECASTS WHICH INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR 12-14 FT SEAS IN THIS ZONE OF 25-30 KT WINDS. S OF THE FRONT E TO SE FLOW OF GENERALLY 15-20 KT PREVAILS. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATED THAT THE WIND FIELD N OF THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN MODESTLY OVERNIGHT WHILE THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO SAT MORNING...AND THE LOW TRACKING NNE TOWARDS TEXAS-LOUISIANA BORDER. A MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SE TO S FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF SAT THROUGH SUN AIDING IN THE LIFTING OF THE FRONT...WITH SEAS SUBSIDING 4-6 FT BASIN WIDE. THE NEXT S/W TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP THE REMNANTS OF THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM SUN AND DRAG IT E AND NE THROUGH MON...STRINGING OUT A DISSIPATING FRONTAL TROUGH ALONG THE COAST OF THE PANHANDLE. A NEXT LOW PRES SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL SINK SE INTO THE NW GULF LATE TUE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE N HALF OF THE GULF TUE NIGHT. HIGH PRES AND COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 20-25 KT N TO NE WINDS N OF THIS FRONT BUILDING SEAS 6-9 FT BY WED EVENING. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS W OF 55W... RIDGING TO THE N OF THE AREA IN COMBINATION WITH LOWER PRES OVER S AMERICA IS KEEPING A MODEST PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...WHILE DEEP ELYS ARE ALLOWING FOR A LOW LEVEL JET TO OCCUR N OF 15N...WITH SCT SHOWERS WITH VERY GUSTY WINDS CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE N HALF OF THE BASIN. RECENT ASCAT PASSES SHOWED WIDESPREAD ELY FLOW OF 20-25 KT WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN E OF 80W...AND A SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF 25-30 KT WINDS OFF OF COLOMBIA EXTENDING N TO NEAR 14.5N. WWIII GUIDANCE RESPONDS BY QUICKLY BUILDING SEAS 12-15 FT JUST DOWNWIND OF THESE STRONG WINDS OFF OF COLOMBIA...WHILE MOST OF THE BASIN IS 7-9 FT AND GREATER. A STRONG HIGH PRES SYSTEM N OF THE GULF FRONT WILL SLIDE E NEXT 36 HOURS TO MAINTAIN FRESH WINDS AND BUILDING WIND SEA ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. ECMWF GUIDANCE FORECAST A BROAD AREA OF 25-30 KT WINDS EXTENDING TO 16N SUN-SUN AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD EXPAND LARGE AREA OF 12 FT SEAS PER WWIII N AND NW. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH SLOWLY INTO WED. SW N ATLC W OF 55W... WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM FROM 31N58W SW THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH FRESH NELY FLOW W OF 72W BLOWING INTO THE FLORIDA COAST. A WEAK AND NARROW RIDGE LIES BELOW THE FRONT ALONG 25/26N. FRESH NE TO E WINDS WILL EXPAND W TO 60W NEXT 24 HOURS AS E COAST SURFACE HIGH SLIDES E AND OFFSHORE. THIS IS FORECAST TO BUILD SEA TO 8-11 FT IN A BROAD MIX OF N...NW...AND SELY SWELL. MEANWHILE...A BROAD AND DEEP LOW ACROSS THE NW ATLC WILL SHIFT E NEXT FEW DAYS...AND PUSH FRONT SE ALL THE WHILE...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE NWLY SWELL. THIS SWELL WILL PROPAGATE S AND SE AND REACH THE NE CARIBBEAN PASSAGE LATE SUN-SUN EVENING AND DOMINATE SEAS E OF THE ISLANDS FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THE GULF FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE SE COAST OF THE U.S. SUN EVENING AND NIGHT WITH STRONG SLY FLOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF IT ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA. DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD THEN BE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE W HALF OF THE AREA MON AND TUE AS THIS FRONT SHIFTS E AND SE...WITH MILD FLOW BEHIND IT. WARNINGS... ATLC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING