000 AGXX40 KNHC 111944 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 PM EST FRI DEC 11 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... LATEST VISA SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS QUITE AN EXTENSIVE COVERAGE OF MOSTLY LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS COVERING THE GULF ALONG AND N OF A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NW TO A WEAK 1014 MB LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF NEAR 25N96W. A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO NEAR 20N96W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW NNE TO ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. TO THE N OF THE FRONT...RIDGING EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE GULF. LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND A FEW SHIP REPORTS SHOW NE-E WINDS OF 20-25 N OF THE FRONT...AND LIGHTER E-SE WINDS OF 10-15 KT S OF THE FRONT. SEAS HAVE REACHED UP TO 8 FT N OF THE FRONT WITH A MAXIMUM OF 9-10 FT OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION NEAR 26N91W. ELSEWHERE SEAS ARE ABOUT 3-5 FT IN MUCH LIGHTER GRADIENT. THIS FORECAST WILL REELECT OVERALL LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING WITH REGARDS TO FUTURE FRONTAL POSITION AND TIMING. LOOKING OVER LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THIS MORNING...THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND INTO SAT MORNING AS THE LOW TRACKS NE TOWARDS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA WHILE WEAKENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW EXTEND FROM NEAR THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE SW TO THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE BY SUN AFTERNOON. THE FRONT DISSIPATES THROUGH SUN NIGHT AS ATLC HIGH PRES RIDGING THEN BUILDS SW ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF...AND MUCH OF THE MIDDLE GULF. WINDS WILL BE 10-15 KT OVER THE AREA SUN NIGHT THROUGH LATE MON...THEN VEER AROUND TO THE S AND SW-SW OVER THE WESTERN PORTION MON AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. GLOBAL MODELS AND EVEN THE REGIONAL NAM SUGGEST THAT THE HIGH THEN RETREATS EASTWARD TUE AND WED AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE NW GULF MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING FOLLOWED BY A SURGE OF INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE WITH THE STRONGEST OF THESE WINDS PROBABLY OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE NW GULF ...AND FAR WESTERN SECTION OF THE SW GULF. BOTH CONVENTIONAL NOAA WAVEWATCH AND UKMET WAVE GUIDANCE INDICATES SEAS BUILDING UP TO 11 FT OVER THE MIDDLE GULF AND A PORTION OF THE SW GULF BY LATE WED AND BEYOND. WILL FOLLOW GUIDANCE VALUES FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. BY WED...THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AS STRONG HIGH PRES USHERING N-NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT PRESSES S INTO THE AREA N OF THE FRONT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER NE AVERAGING 15 KT S OF THE FRONT WED...BUT POSSIBLY STRONGER OVER THE SW GULF FAR W PORTION ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS W OF 55W... RIDGING TO THE N OF THE AREA IN COMBINATION WITH LOWER PRES OVER S AMERICA IS KEEPING A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...MAINLY THE S CENTRAL AND SW PORTIONS WITH NE-E WINDS OF 20-30 KT. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH SAT MORNING...THEN WINDS INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH MON MORNING AS HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA BUILDS SOUTHWARD. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WITH SEAS THERE UP TO 14 FT THROUGH TUE PER WAVEWATCH MODEL GUIDANCE...THEN DIMINISH SLOWLY INTO WED. SW N ATLC W OF 55W... LATEST VIS SATELLITE SHOWS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT FROM 31N63W SW TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BUOYS REPORTS FROM 410102 AND 41009 BEHIND THE FRONT ARE REPORTING LIGHTER WINDS THAN YESTERDAY...NE WINDS 10-15 KT WITH SEAS OF 3-5 FT. TO THE SE OF THE FRONT A RIDGE IS ANALYZED ALONG 25N WITH SE WINDS OF 10-15 KT S OF THE RIDGE...AND S TO SW WINDS OF 10-15 KT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND THE RIDGE W OF 62W TO THE BAHAMAS... ...VARIABLE WINDS 5-10 KT E OF 62W AND SE-S 5-10 KT W OF BAHAMAS. BUOYS 41043 AND 41044 ARE REPORTING A N SWELL CREATING COMBINED SEA STATE HEIGHTS NOW LOWER THAN THIS MORNING OF 7 FT. SEAS ELSEWHERE ARE 4-6 FT...EXCEPT W OF THE BAHAMAS WHERE SEAS ARE 2-3 FT. MODELS AGREES THAT FRONT WILL PUSH TO THE FAR SE WATERS BY SAT NIGHT...WHILE THE PORTION W OF THE BAHAMAS LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHWARD AND DISSIPATES BY EARLY SUN MORNING. STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS SE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. A COASTAL TROUGH SETS UP OFF THE GEORGIA AND NE FLORIDA COAST BY SAT MORNING THEN SPINS UP A LOW SAT NIGHT INTO SUN....AND TRACKS NE WHILE DRAGGING A COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS SUN AND MON. FRONT DISSIPATED TUE OVER OR JUST E OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER THE AREA TUE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT YET MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA WED FOLLOWED BY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS. WARNINGS... ATLC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE