000 AGXX40 KNHC 101945 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 PM EST THU DEC 10 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... LATEST VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A NICELY DEFINED ROPE CLOUD FEATURE MARKING THE LEADING EDGE OF A COLD FRONT FROM NEAR FORT MYERS FLORIDA SW TO 25N88W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO A WEAK 1012 MB LOW OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 21N94W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW S TO JUST E OF TAMPICO MEXICO. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BEING ZONAL AS STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SUPPRESSING TROUGHING TO THE N...THE FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE PUSH TO THE S AFTER REACHING THE VICINITY OF THE FAR SE GULF AND SOUTHERN TIP OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON FRI. LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND A FEW SHIP REPORTS SHOW NE-E WINDS OF 20-25 N OF THE FRONT...EXCEPT OVER THE FAR NE PORTION OF THE GULF WHERE WINDS ARE NE AVERAGING 17 KT. SEAS ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN 8 FT...EXCEPT IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE MIDDLE GULF WHERE COMBINED SEA STATE IS UP TO 8 FT. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE WESTERN PORTION LIFTING BACK N AS A WARM FRONT LATE FRI AFTERNOON INTO SAT AS ATLC RIDGING BUILDS WESTWARD ROUGHLY ALONG 26N INTO TUE MORNING PER LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. S OF THE RIDGE WINDS WILL BE E-SE 10-15 KT WITH SEAS IN THE 3-4 FT RANGE...WHILE N OF THE RIDGE WINDS WILL BE S-SE 10-15 KT WITH SEAS AVERAGING 2 FT. THE WEAK LOW WILL PULL TO THE NE DRAGGING A WEAK COLD FRONT E TO NEAR A MOBILE ALABAMA TO FAR S TEXAS LINE BY SUN AFTERNOON. THE FRONT THEN WEAKENS THROUGH MON MORNING AS WEAK ATLC RIDGING ONCE AGAIN PROTRUDES SW ACROSS THE EASTERN AND MIDDLE LATER ON SUN THROUGH EARLY TUE. MODELS AND EVEN THEIR ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREE IN BOTH THAT THE HIGH SHIFTS ENE TUE AND WITH TIMING OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE NW GULF MOST PROBABLY TUE MORNING WITH A SURGE OF INCREASING NW WINDS FOLLOWING IN BEHIND IN THE LATER MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME RATHER LIGHT SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON TUE. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS W OF 55W... RIDGING TO THE N OF THE AREA IN COMBINATION WITH LOWER PRES OVER S AMERICA IS KEEPING A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...MAINLY THE S CENTRAL AND SW PORTIONS WITH NE-E WINDS OF 20-30 KT. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH NEXT FEW DAYUS WITH WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIS DIMINISHING SOME EARLY NEXT WEEK...PROBABLY TUE. SW N ATLC W OF 55W... LATEST VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY MARKS THE LEADING EDGE OF A COLD FRONT FROM 31N74W SW TO NEAR MELBOURNE FLORIDA AND SW TO NEAR FORT MYERS. LATEST BUOY REPORTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 28N AND E TO 67W SHOW SW 20-25 KT WINDS WITH SEAS UP TO 9 FT. BUOYS 410102 AND 41009 BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE ARE REPORTING NW WINDS OF 15-20 KT WITH SEAS OF 5 FT. TO THE SE OF THE FRONT A RIDGE IS ANALYZED ALONG 26N WITH SE WINDS OF 10-15 KT S OF THE RIDGE ...AND S TO SW WINDS OF 10-15 KT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND THE RIDGE W OF 62W TO THE BAHAMAS...VARIABLE WINDS 5-10 KT E OF 62W AND SE-S 5-10 KT W OF BAHAMAS. BUOYS 41043 AND 41044 ARE REPORTING A N SWELL CREATING COMBINED SEA STATE HEIGHTS OF 8 FT. SEAS ELSEWHERE ARE 4-6 FT...EXCEPT W OF THE BAHAMAS WHERE SEAS ARE 2-3 FT. MODELS AGREES THAT FRONT WILL PUSH TO THE FAR SE WATERS BY FRI NIGHT WHILE WEAKENING AS STRONG HIGH CONTINENTAL HIGH PRES BUILDS SE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT THEN LIFTS N AS A COASTAL TROUGH OFF THE GEORGIA AND NE FLORIDA COAST FRO NIGHT DEVELOPS INTO A LOW SAT NIGHT INTO SUN....AND TRACKS NE WHILE DRAGGING A COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS MON AND TUE. RIGHT NOW...LATEST ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT WINDS SHOULD BY LIGHT WITH RESPECT TO THE FRONT AS IT QUICKLY MOVES E AND WEAKENS THROUGH TUE AS YET ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRES BUILDS SE INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS BEHIND THIS FRONT. WARNINGS... ATLC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE