000
AGXX40 KNHC 100725
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
230 AM EST THU DEC 10 2009

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN ASCAT PASS FROM 04Z SHOWED A SWATH OF 20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS 
BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA 
TO A 1007 MB LOW PRES NE OF TAMPICO. THE FRONT WILL MAKE SLOW 
PROGRESS OVER THE EASTERN GULF...PUSHING INTO THE STRAITS OF 
FLORIDA BY LATE FRI. IT IS STALLING OVER THE WESTERN GULF 
HOWEVER...WITH THE LOW PRES EXPECTED TO WEAKENED AND DRIFT N TO 
NE TOWARD THE SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. 
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND VEER TO THE SE AS A RESULT. A 
RIDGE OF HIGH PRES BUILDS EAST TO WEST ALONG ROUGHLY 25N THIS 
WEEKEND AS THE LOW PRES WEAKENS FURTHER AND LIFTS OUT TO THE NE. 
THIS WILL LEAVE LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER MOST OF 
THE GULF SAT INTO SUN. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE OFF 
THE TEXAS COAST BY MON IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT 
EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW GULF MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS W OF 55W...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC 
TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ALONG WITH LOW PRESSURE IN THE ITCZ IS 
MAINTAINING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN 
WATERS. RECENT ASCAT PASS INDICATES FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWIND 
FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING 
WILL PREVAIL IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND MAINTAIN THE FRESH TO 
STRONG TRADES THROUGH THE WEEKEND OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN AND 
OVER THE ATLC WATERS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. EAST SWELL 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PERSISTENT TRADE WINDS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH 
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND TROP N ATLC 
WATERS. 

SW N ATLC W OF 55W...
BUOY DATA ALONG WITH EVENING ASCAT AND WINDSAT PASSES SHOW FRESH 
TO STRONG S TO SW WINDS OVER THE WATERS N OF THE BAHAMAS. THESE 
WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO FRI BETWEEN N FLORIDA AND BERMUDA AHEAD 
OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE OFF THE N FLORIDA COAST EARLY 
THIS MORNING...WITH WINDS SHIFTING NW BEHIND THE FRONT. THE 
FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EAST...REACHING A POSITION FROM ROUGHLY 
BERMUDA TO FAR SOUTH FLORIDA BY EARLY FRI...THEN WILL STALL OVER 
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY LATE FRI BEFORE LIFTING N AGAIN INTO 
SAT. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD N OF THE FRONT AND SHIFT FROM THE 
COAST TO THE CENTRAL ATLC FRI THROUGH SUN...MAINTAINING FRESH 
TRADE WIND FLOW S OF 22N. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AGAIN 
OVER THE WATERS N OF BERMUDA SAT INTO SUN AFTER THE RIDGE SHIFTS 
TO THE EAST...AND AHEAD OF LOW PRES SHIFTING NE FROM THE GULF OF 
MEXICO TO THE CAROLINA COAST. AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE 
OFF THE N FLORIDA COAST SUN...BUT STALL N OF THE BAHAMAS THROUGH 
MONDAY. MEANWHILE NORTHERLY SWELL WITH HEIGHTS EXCEEDING 15 FT 
AND PERIODS TO 15 SECONDS WILL PUSH INTO THE WATERS SE OF 
BERMUDA THIS WEEKEND.

WARNINGS...

ATLC...
NONE.   

CARIBBEAN...
.NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
.NONE.

$$
FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN