000 AGXX40 KNHC 081919 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 218 PM EST TUE DEC 08 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... COMPLEX LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS ALREADY RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN RETURN FLOW OVER THE GULF W OF 85W WITH PLATFORMS REPORTING S WINDS OF 20 KT OR SO. A 1512 UTC ASCAT PASS SUPPORTED THE EXISTENCE OF THESE WINDS AS WELL. SWATH OF S TO SW WINDS WILL NOT EXTEND MUCH FURTHER THAN CURRENT AS THE LOW TURNS SHARPLY NE AWAY FROM THE AREA. NONETHELESS TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE TEXAS COAST TONIGHT AND EXTENDS FROM THE FL BIG BEND TO THE WRN BAY OF CAMPECHE BY LATE WED. SINCE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH ALSO LIFTS OUT TO THE NE THE FRONT MAKES LITTLE PROGRESS SWD AND EXTENDS FROM SW FLORIDA TO THE FAR WRN BAY OF CAMPECHE BY LATE THU. BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRES N OF THE FRONT RESULTS IN INCREASING NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT ON THU. GFS/UKMET/ECMWF ALL AGREE ON DEVELOPING LOW PRES OFF THE TEXAS COAST FRI EVENING AND MOVING THE SYSTEM TO THE LOUISIANA COAST ON SAT...THEN REDEVELOPING THE SYSTEM OFF THE SE COAST LATE SAT AND SUN. E TO SE WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW VEER TO THE S TO SW SAT WITH ANOTHER TRAILING...THOUGH WEAKER FRONT DROPPING INTO THE NW HALF OF THE GULF BY LATE SUN. SW N ATLC... STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG 28N/29N TO THE NORTH OF A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ALONG 26N. BUOY AND SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW LIGHT TO MODERATE NE TO E WINDS N OF THE FRONT AND LIGHT E TO SE WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA N OF 22N. MODERATE TO FRESH E TRADES ARE NOTED S OF 22N. SEAS REPORTED BY THE BUOYS BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND BERMUDA ARE REPORTING GENERALLY 6 FT SEAS IN NORTHERLY SWELL...WITH PERIODS OF 9 TO 11 SECONDS. WINDS TURN E TO SE AND INCREASE TO 20 KT OVER THE N PORTION OF THE AREA AS THE FRONT LIFTS N AS A WARM FRONT. FRONT MOVES N OF THE AREA EARLY WED WITH S TO SW WINDS PICKING UP TO 20-25 KT...LOCALLY 30 KT N OF 30N. NEXT COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO MOVE OFF THE N FLORIDA COAST LATE WED NIGHT AND EXTEND FROM 31N70W TO SE FLORIDA BY LATE THU. FRONT STALLS FROM 27N65W TO E-CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM BY LATE FRI AND AS IN THE CASE WITH THE GULF BUILDING HIGH PRES N OF THE FRONT ALLOWS E WINDS TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT FRI NIGHT. REDEVELOPING LOW PRES OFF THE SE COAST SAT PULLS THE FRONT N OF THE AREA WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE SW AT 20-25 KT...LOCALLY HIGHER OVER THE AREA N OF 28N W OF 70W. RIDGE HOLDS ALONG 25N SUN WITH SW WINDS N OF RIDGE AXIS AND SE WINDS S OF AXIS. AS LOW PRES MOVES NE OFF THE NE COAST ANOTHER TRAILING FRONT ENTERS THE AREA SUN AND EXTENDS FROM BERMUDA TO NE FLORIDA BY LATE SUN. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... FRESH TRADES CONTINUE FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC W ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN THIS MORNING...WITH SEAS ON THE ORDER OF 7-8 FT E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...AND 5 - 6 FT SEAS ACROSS THE CARIB...EXCEPT 8-10 A FEW DEGREES OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THIS PATTERN FOR NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH NLY SWELL BLEEDING THROUGH THE ATLC PASSAGES BY WED....YIELDING A MIX THROUGH THE PASSAGE AND ACROSS THE ADJACENT ATLC OF MERGING NLY AND ELY SWELL. WARNINGS... ATLC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. $$ FORECASTER COBB