000 AGXX40 KNHC 080728 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 AM EST TUE DEC 08 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CAROLINAS SW THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...TO THE SW GULF OF MEXICO. FURTHER WEST...A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM SW LOUISIANA TO S TEXAS. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 03Z ALONG WITH REPORTS FROM BUOY 42001 IN THE CENTRAL GULF INDICATE A SWATH OF 20 KT SE FLOW BETWEEN THESE FEATURES FROM ROUGHLY THE NW YUCATAN TO S LOUISIANA. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WASH OUT TODAY...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES OVER THE WESTERN GULF BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE AND STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHING EASTWARD THROUGH TEXAS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST TUE NIGHT...AND REACH POSITION FROM THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA TO THE RIO GRANDE DELTA BY EARLY WED. THE UPPER TROUGH DRIVING THE FRONT LIFTS OUT THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH MID WEEK...LEAVING GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE GULF BY WED AND LIMITING THE SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM TAMPA TO TAMPICO BY EARLY THU...THEN SAG S AND STALL FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE SW GULF N OF VERACRUZ BY EARLY FRI. SOUTHERLY FLOW OF 20 TO 25 KT IS LIKELY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. EXPECT N TO NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL LATER IN THE WEEK. THE FRONT LIFTS N OVER THE WESTERN GULF FRI INTO SAT. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW LOW PRES DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF AND LIFTING NE THROUGH LOUISIANA FRI INTO SAT. SW N ATLC... A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ALONG 28N TO THE NORTH OF A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ALONG ROUGHLY 25N. BUOY AND SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW LIGHT TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA N OF 22N. MODERATE TO FRESH E TRADES ARE NOTED S OF 22N. BUOYS BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND BERMUDA ARE REPORTING 6 TO 8 FT NORTHERLY SWELL...WITH PERIODS OF 9 TO 11 SECONDS. BUOY 41047 NEAR 28N72W IS SHOWING SOUTHERLY FLOW...SUPPORTING GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS THAT A WAVE MAY BE FORMING ALONG THE FRONT...ALLOWING SE WINDS N OF THE BAHAMAS TO INCREASE TO 20 KT TODAY. THESE WINDS WILL INCREASE FURTHER TO 25 KT AND VEER MORE S TO SW ON WED...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE OFF THE N FLORIDA COAST LATE WED NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM ROUGHLY BERMUDA TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY EARLY FRI...AND STALL OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS BY SAT...AS HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE NORTH. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... FRESH TRADES CONTINUE FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC W ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN THIS MORNING...WITH SEAS CURRENTLY INCREASING JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES 8-10 IN NELY TRADE WIND SWELL...AND TYPICAL SEAS ACROSS THE CARIB 6-7 FT...EXCEPT 8-10 A FEW DEGREES OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THIS PATTERN FOR NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH NLY SWELL BLEEDING THROUGH THE ATLC PASSAGES BY WED....YIELDING A MIX THROUGH THE PASSAGE AND ACROSS THE ADJACENT ATLC OF MERGING NLY AND ELY SWELL. WARNINGS... ATLC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. $$ FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN