000 AGXX40 KNHC 071916 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 PM EST MON DEC 07 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS LINGERING OFFSHORE OF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SLY RETURN FLOW PRODUCING LLVL CONVERGENCE FOR SCT RW/TRW ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT VENTING ISOLATED DEEP CNVTN. THIS BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO DRIFT NW AS A WARM FRONT AS THE RETURN FLOW INCREASES TONIGHT THROUGH TUE. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS WERE ACROSS THE NW GULF WITH SE WINDS 15-20 KT AND SEAS NEAR 6 FT JUST SE OF THIS BOUNDARY...AND SEAS GENERALLY 4-5 ELSEWHERE W OF 90W. A LOW TO MID LEVEL LOW SEEN YDA IN STLT IMAGERY OFF THE SW FLORIDA COAST APPEARS TO HAVE WORKED TO THE SURFACE...AT LEAST WEAKLY...YIELDING NWLY FLOW ACROSS THE KEYS...AND A CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY OFF THE SE COAST OF EXTREME S FLORIDA. MODELS FORECAST NEXT COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO NW GULF EARLY WED AND CONTINUE SE THROUGH THU BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE W GULF ALONG 24-25N. HOWEVER THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCE IN POSITION OF THE FRONT ACROSS FLORIDA BY FRI...WITH ECMWF NEAR DAYTONA BEACH AND THE GFS NEAR MIAMI. FAST AND PROGRESSIVE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ENSO PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO WREAK HAVOC WITH MODELS TIMING...BUT ATTM WOULD LEAN TOWARDS THE ECMWF. SW N ATLC... STALLED COLD FRONT DRAPING ACROSS FAR N PORTIONS OF THE AREA EXTENDS W TO A FRONTAL WAVE/BAROCLINIC LEAF LOOKING FEATURE NEAR 28.5N75W ATTM...WITH BOUNDARY THEN TRAILING W TO N OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND LIKELY INTO REMNANTS OF LOW-MID LEVEL LOW DISCUSSED ABOVE. WINDS N OF THIS BOUNDARY HAVE DROPPED OFF FROM PAST 12-24 HOURS...NOW AROUND 15 KT PER RECENT ASCAT PASS... POSSIBLY 15-20 KT JUST N OF THE NW BAHAMAS. NLY SWELL BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE N AND NE WITH SEAS 7-9 FT N OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS FRONT WILL BE DRAGGED E AND SE NEXT FEW DAYS AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATED WHILE N TO NW SWELL FROM PARENT LOW ACROSS NW ATLC WILL PROPAGATE S AND SE AND BUILD SEAS 8 TO 11 FT ACROSS FAR NE SECTIONS. S OF THIS BOUNDARY A VERY WEAK AND NARROW RIDGE EXISTS AND WAS YIELDING MODERATE TRADES. AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM SHIFTS SE INTO THE GLFMEX THE ATLC RIDGE WILL REORGANIZE AND OPEN UP INTO S TO SELY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH WED MORNING...BUILDING SEAS MAINLY W OF 75W AND N OF THE NW BAHAMAS...AND ALONG THE SE SEABOARD. MEANWHILE...ELY TRADE WIND SWELL WILL MOVE JUST N OF THE GREATER ANTILLES AND THROUGH THE PASSAGE S OF TURKS AND CAICOS. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... FRESH TRADES CONTINUE FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC W ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN THIS MORNING...WITH SEAS CURRENTLY INCREASING JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES 8-10 IN NELY TRADE WIND SWELL...AND TYPICAL SEAS ACROSS THE CARIB 6-7 FT...EXCEPT 8-10 A FEW DEGREES OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THIS PATTERN FOR NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH NLY SWELL BLEEDING THROUGH THE ATLC PASSAGES BY WED....YIELDING A MIX THROUGH THE PASSAGE AND ACROSS THE ADJACENT ATLC OF MERGING NLY AND ELY SWELL. WARNINGS... ATLC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING