000
AGXX40 KNHC 061920
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
220 PM EST SUN DEC 06 2009

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W

GULF OF MEXICO...
HIGH PRES IS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING 
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST INLAND OVER 
SE TEXAS AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IN THE NW GULF HAS INCREASED 
TO 20 TO 25 KT TODAY AS INDICATED BY A 1554 UTC ASCAT PASS 
AND BUOY OBS. THIS TROUGH WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE INTO THE NEARSHORE 
WATERS TONIGHT...WHERE IT WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEK. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY EARLY MON AS 
THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS WITH THE HIGH OVER THE MID ATLC STATES
SHIFTING FARTHER AWAY FROM THE GULF COAST. SOUTHERLY FLOW 
INCREASES AGAIN TUE AND TUE NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE 
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF BY EARLY WED...REACHING 30N85W 
TO 25N93W WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING DOWN TO 20N96W BY 
LATE WED. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE N-NE AND INCREASE TO 20 KT 
BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT AND BECOME DIFFUSE IN 
THE CENTRAL GULF THROUGH THU AS A RIDGE REMAINS ENTRENCHED IN 
THE ATLC AND ACROSS S FLORIDA. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT 
TO THE E LATE THU ALLOWING FOR THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT TO 
REACH FROM NEAR 27N82W TO 25N90W BY EARLY FRI. 

SW N ATLC...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N65W TO 27N74W WITH A STATIONARY 
FRONT FROM THERE TO CENTRAL CUBA. NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE 
COLD FRONT REMAIN NEAR 20 KT AS INDICATED BY A 1412 UTC ASCAT 
PASS AND SEVERAL SHIP OBS LOCATED FROM N OF THE BAHAMAS TO 
OFFSHORE OF FLORIDA NEAR THE GULFSTREAM. THIS FEATURE WILL WEAKEN
AND MOVE NE OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH BROAD HIGH PRES BUILDING IN 
ACROSS THE AREA. MODEL GUIDANCE DEVELOPS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES 
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NEAR 30N70N TO 
23N78W LATE MON INTO TUE...THEN MOVES IT TO THE NE WHERE IT 
DISSIPATES BY LATE TUE INTO WED AS IT ENCOUNTERS STRENGTHENING 
HIGH PRES N OF 31N. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS IN OVER THE 
AREA BY MID WEEK. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE W PORTION OF 
THE AREA INCREASES TO 20 TO 25 KT EARLY WED THROUGH WED NIGHT AS 
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST NEAR THE GA/FL BORDER BY EARLY 
THU. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE REACHING FROM NEAR 31N71W TO 
27N77W BY LATE THU...THEN FROM 31N64W TO 28N71W BY EARLY FRI. 
HIGH PRES OVER THE MID ATLC STATES  WILL THEN BUILD DOWN S OF 
31N BY LATE FRI WITH 20 TO 25 KT NE TO E WINDS BECOMING 
ESTABLISHED AROUND THE HIGH.

CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM 22N81W TO 18N87W IS BECOMING 
DIFFUSE AND A 1600 UTC ASCAT PASS AND OBS FROM NDBC BUOY 42056 
NOW DEPICT NE WINDS BELOW 20 KT (10-15 KT)...AND THIS FEATURE 
WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT 
BETWEEN LOW PRES OVER NORTHERN S AMERICA AND HIGH PRES OVER THE 
CENTRAL ATLC CONTINUES TO RESULT IN 20 TO 25 KT TRADES ACROSS 
THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN...WITH EVEN HIGH GUSTS NEAR 
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. ALSO...THE LONG EASTERLY FETCH OVER THE 
BASIN CONTINUES TO RESULT IN SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT. THIS PATTERN 
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. 

WARNINGS...

ATLC...
NONE.   

CARIBBEAN...
.NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
.NONE.

$$
FORECASTER LEWITSKY