000 AGXX40 KNHC 041954 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 255 PM EST FRI DEC 04 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE SW FL COAST SW TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 25N85W...AND CONTINUES SW TO NEAR THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY 1012 MB LOW IS ANALYZED OVER THE WESTERN GULF NEAR 26N95W WITH A NEWLY DEVELOPED COLD FRONT S TO INLAND MEXICO AT 18N96W. A HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT PASS FROM JUST PASSED 1630 UTC TODAY CAPTURED THE CIRCULATION WITH THE SECOND LOW VERY WELL. IT ALSO SHOWED NUMEROUS WIND VECTORS OF 30 KT WITH SOME OF 35 KT E AND SE OF THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST. BROAD UPPER SW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH LONGWAVE TROUGH SWINGING SE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL ONLY ALLOW FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT TO LIFT SLOWLY N THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT UNTIL A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING EASTWARD THROUGH S TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO PROVIDES MOMENTUM FOR IT TO BEGIN TO LIFT FURTHER N LATER TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. LATEST SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING NE WINDS OF MOSTLY 10-15 KT ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTIONS BEING THE NW GULF ZONE WHERE BUOY 42020 JUST RECENTLY REPORTED NW WINDS OF 33 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT AND SEAS UP TO 11.5 FT. THIS IS A RESULT OF THE ALREADY PRESENT VERY COLD AIR MASS STARTING TO ADVECT ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OFF THE CENTRAL U.S. OVER THE SE GULF S OF THE STATIONARY FRONT AND LOW WINDS ARE E-SE 10-15 KT. SEAS RANGE RANGE FROM 4-6 FT OVER THE SE GULF...TO 3-5 FT OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE MIDDLE GULF...2-3 FT. ELSEWHERE EXCEPT THE REMAINDER OF THE NW GULF WHERE SEAS ARE BUILDING TO 5-7 FT. NOAA WAVEWATCH MODEL THIS MORNING APPEARED RATHER REASONABLE WITH SEA HEIGHTS...SO WILL TAKE INTO CONSIDERATION FOR THIS FORECAST. MODELS...FOR THE MOST PART...ARE IN AGREEMENT AS TO EVOLUTION OF RATHER COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEMS AND WEAK POP-UP LOWS ALONG THE FRONTS THROUGH NEXT 48 HOURS AS WELL AS STRONG NLY WINDS BEHIND THEM. NOGAPS...HOWEVER...LAGS IN STRENGTH OF WINDS OVER THIS TIME PERIOD AS THE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY PROGRESSIVE. GALE CONDITIONS SHOULD LAST OVER THE FAR SW PORTION OF THE SW GULF BY SAT MORNING. BY LATE SAT AFTERNOON N-NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT WILL BE NOTED ACROSS ALL WATERS...EXCEPT THE FAR EASTERN GULF WHERE A STRONGER GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT NW WINDS OF 20-25 KT. A NEW BUT MUCH WEAKER AREA OF LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE NW GULF SUN NIGHT...AND DRAGS A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE NW GULF MON...AND FROM SE LOUISIANA TO FAR S TEXAS BY MON...AND WEAKEN OVER THE NORTHERN GULF TUE. MODELS SUGGEST THAT A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS THE GULF...AND REACH FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE BY WED PRECEDED BY STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW. WILL GO WITH NW WINDS 20-25 KT BEHIND THIS FRONT PENDING FUTURE MODEL RUNS. SLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN GULF AND NORTHERN MIDDLE GULF TUE AND WED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SW N ATLC... A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N75W SW TO ACROSS S FLORIDA AND INTO THE E GULF LOW. WINDS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT ARE LIGHT WITH POSSIBLE WEAK LOW PRES FORMING NEAR 28N77W. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE RAPIDLY NE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE FRONT MOVING SE SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN AND STALL OVER THE SE AND S WATERS LATE SUN AND SUN NIGHT. THE FRONT THEN RETURNS N AS A FRONTAL TROUGH MON THROUGH WED WITH SLY WINDS INCREASING OVER THE NW PORTION AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT OVER THE SE U.S. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... GRADIENT SHOULD SUPPORT 20-25 KT IN THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH WINDS UP TO 30 KT AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS ALONG COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH AT LEAST SAT. COLD FRONT OVER THE SE GULF EXPECTED TO MOVE N AWAY FROM AREA THROUGH SAT. LOW PRES MOVES ACROSS THE GULF FRI NIGHT AND SAT AND DRAGS A STRONGER COLD FRONT INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SAT AFTERNOON REACHING FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO NEAR NE HONDURAS BY SUN BEFORE WEAKENING. MOSTLY ELY TRADES RESUME THROUGHOUT THE AREA EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT WILL CONTINUE INTO WED. WARNINGS... ATLC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ080...GALE WARNING S OF 28N. GMZ082...GALE WARNING W OF 95W. $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE