000 AGXX40 KNHC 040808 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 AM EST FRI DEC 04 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM SW FL TO NE YUCATAN PENINSULA SLOWED DOWN TO A CRAWL EARLIER THU AND HAS BEEN ALMOST STATIONARY THROUGH THE NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SHIFT MORE NE OVER CENTRAL STATES. FORECAST FOR GULF BRINGS THE UNCERTAINTY OF SPLIT SOLUTIONS BY EUROPEAN MODEL AND GFS/NAM MODELS. THE LATTER BEING MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH SURFACE LOW PRES DEVELOPING ON TAIL END OF COLD FRONT TONIGHT AND MOVING NE ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAT EFFECTIVELY RE-ENERGIZING FRONT AND FORCING IT E. NAM LESS AGGRESSIVE ON WINDS BUT WITH SIMILAR TIMING AND TRACK FOR LOW PRES. ECMWF BRINGS HEALTHY TROUGH INTO E GULF SAT. WHILE NOT COMPLETELY SOLD ON STRENGTH OF LOW PRES... FORECAST FOLLOWS TROUGH FORMATION AS NEW SHORTWAVE BRINGS INSTABILITY TO EASTERN GULF AND MOVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EASTWARD. MEANWHILE HIGH PRES BEHIND COLD FRONT BRING GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS WESTERN GULF REGION WITH STRONG NE WINDS W OF 90W AND MODERATE TO STRONG E OF 90W. NEAR GALE N-NE WINDS SPREAD INTO EASTERN GULF LATE SAT. HIGH PRES MOVES E PROMPTING VEERING WIND FLOW W OF 90W WITH MODERATE BREEZE AS RETURN FLOW ALONG TEXAS COAST BY EARLY SUN AS SECOND COLD FRONT APPROACHES NW GULF COAST...ALTHOUGH MUCH WEAKER IN NATURE. SW N ATLC... COLD FRONT FROM 31N74W TO SE FLORIDA COAST BARELY DRIFTING E. FRESH SW BREEZE DIMINISHING TODAY AND TONIGHT UNTIL NEXT IMPULSE FORCES COLD FRONT EASTWARD INCREASING WIND AND SEAS WITH STRONG N-NE BREEZE AND SEAS TO 9 FT MAINLY N OF 28N. WEAK LOW PRES OR STRONG TROUGH MOVES INTO SW N ATLC WATERS MOVES QUICKLY NE OUT OF AREA BY LATE SUN LEAVING STRONG N-NE WINDS AND SEAS TO 9 FT. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... TIGHT GRADIENT SUPPORT STRONG TRADES ALONG COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. COLD FRONT STALLS OVER YUCATAN CHANNEL TODAY...DRIFT BACK NW TONIGHT THEN IS FORCED SE BY SECOND IMPULSE INTO NW CARIBBEAN SUN. FRONT BECOMES DIFFUSE MON AND TUE AS ELY TRADES RESUME THROUGHOUT. WARNINGS... ATLC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ080...GALE CONDITIONS S OF 27N. GMZ082...GALE CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT W OF 95W. $$ FORECASTER WALLY BARNES