000
AGXX40 KNHC 031929
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
230 PM EST THU DEC 03 2009

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NAPLES FL SW TO N YUCATAN 
PENINSULA AS IDENTIFIED BY A NICE ROPE CLOUD LINE ON LATEST 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WILL BECOME STATIONARY TONIGHT AS 
BROAD UPPER SW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH LONGWAVE TROUGH SWINGING SE 
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST DOES NOT ALLOW FOR MUCH MOTION TO THE SE. 
LATEST SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW LIGHT NW-N WINDS...IN THE 
10-15 KT RANGE...ACROSS THE GULF WITH WINDS NOW NE IN THE SW 
PORTION. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-7 FT RANGE OVER THE EASTERN SECTION 
OF THE GULF...AND NOW DOWN TO 3-5 FT OVER THE WESTERN SECTION 
WITH SEAS 1-3 FT IN THE NW PORTION. THESE REPORTS ARE VERY CLOSE 
TO 12 UTC NOAA WAVEWATCH MODEL. WILL FOLLOW GUIDANCE FOR THIS
FORECAST. FORECAST FOR THE GULF BECOMES RATHER COMPLICATED 
OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS AS BOTH GLOBALS MODELS AND THE 
REGIONAL NAM MODEL CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT LOW PRES WILL FORM 
OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF E OF S TEXAS AND QUICKLY RACE ENE TO 
NEAR FL BIG BEND BY SAT MORNING WHILE IT QUICKLY FILLS...SIMILAR 
TO PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING. STRONG CAA WILL PRODUCE GALE 
CONDITIONS BY SUNSET FRI W OF LOW AND THE ASSOCIATED NEW COLD 
FRONT. GALE CONDITIONS SHOULD LAST OVER THE FAR SW PORTION OF 
THE SW GULF BY SAT MORNING. BY LATE SAT AFTERNOON N-NE WINDS
OF 15-20 KT WILL BE NOTED ACROSS ALL WATERS...EXCEPT THE FAR
EASTERN GULF WHERE A STRONGER GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT NW WINDS OF 
20-25 KT. A NEW BUT MUCH WEAKER AREA OF LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER 
THE NW GULF SUN NIGHT...AND DRAGS A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE NW 
GULF MON...AND FROM SE LOUISIANA TO FAR S TEXAS BY LATE MON 
NIGHT THEN WASH OUT. STRONG SLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER MUCH OF 
THE WESTERN GULF AND NORTHERN MIDDLE GULF TUE 

SW N ATLC...
THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS FROM NEAR
WEST PALM BEACH NE TO 31N77W. BUOY 41010 AT 29N79W IS CURRENTLY 
REPORTING SW OF 20 KT WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. UNDER CURRENT SW UPPER
FLOW...EXPECT FRONT TO MOVE SLOWLY S THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON WHEN
A WEAK LOW FORMS ON THE FRONT NEAR 29N78W. WITH THIS LOW FORECAST
TO MOVE RAPIDLY NE OVERNIGHT FRI...THE FRONT WILL THEN GET NUDGED
SE SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN AND STALL OVER THE SE AND S WATERS LATE
SUN. THE FRONT THEN RETURNS N AS A FRONTAL TROUGH MON AND TUE
 
CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC...
GRADIENT SHOULD SUPPORT 20-25 KT ALONG COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH 
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH ELY TRADES ABOUT 20 KT OVER ALL WATERS E OF 
80W. COLD FRONT OVER THE SE GULF EXPECTED TO ABRUPTLY STALL JUST 
N OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TODAY THEN DRIFT BACK NW FRI. LOW PRES 
MOVES ACROSS THE GULF FRI NIGHT AND SAT AND DRAGS A STRONGER 
VERSION OF THIS FRONT INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN LATE SAT INTO SUN 
BEFORE STALLING. FRONT BECOMES DIFFUSE MON AND TUE AS MOSTLY ELY 
TRADES RESUME THROUGHOUT EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE 
NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT WILL CONTINUE.

WARNINGS...

ATLC...
NONE.   

CARIBBEAN...
.NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ080...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED S OF 27N LATE FRI AND FRI 
NIGHT.
GMZ082...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT N OF 
FRONT AND W OF 95W.

$$
FORECASTER AGUIRRE