000
AGXX40 KNHC 030636
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
145 AM EST THU DEC 03 2009

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM SW FL TO N YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL 
STALL TODAY AS NW WINDS CLOCK TO N-NE. FRONTAL REMNANTS WILL 
DRIFT NW TONIGHT INTO FRI REACHING FROM SW FL TO CENTRAL BAY OF 
CAMPECHE...THEN EXTENDING N ALONG THE MEXICAN COASTAL WATERS. 
LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONTAL TROUGH NEAR 26N96W LATE
FRI AND RACE ENE TO NEAR FL BIG BEND SAT MORNING THEN GUIDANCE 
SUGGEST LOW WILL QUICKLY FILL. STRONG CAA WILL PRODUCE GALE 
CONDITIONS BY SUNSET FRI W OF LOW AND THE ASSOCIATED NEW COLD 
FRONT. GALE CONDITIONS ONLY EXPECTED BAY OF CAMPECHE AT SUNRISE 
SAT. BY LATE SAT NLY WINDS AT 15-20 KT ALL WATERS THEN QUICKLY 
VEERING TO S OVER THE W WATERS AND INCREASING TO 15-20 KT EARLY 
SUN. A NEW BUT MUCH WEAKER AREA OF LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE NW 
GULF SUN NIGHT AND DRAGS A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE NW GULF MON 
AND MON NIGHT.

SW N ATLC...
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFF GA AND N FL COASTS WITH GALE WARNING 
VERIFIED ON 0350 ASCAT PASS AT 31N79W BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD BE N 
OF AREA AT 06Z. EXPECT FRONT TO STALL TONIGHT ALONG 31N73W TO 
THE BAHAMA CHANNEL THEN DRIFT SLOWLY W AS ATLC RIDGE BUILDS W 
ALONG 28N EARLY FRI. A SECONDARY SURGE MOVE ACROSS FL FRI NIGHT 
INTO SAT PUSHING THE FRONT E AGAIN AND THROUGH BERMUDA SUN NIGHT 
BUT STALLING OVER THE SE BAHAMAS TO E CUBA THEN RETURNING NW ON 
MON.
 
CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC...
GRADIENT SHOULD SUPPORT 20-25 KT ALONG COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH 
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH ELY TRADES ABOUT 20 KT OVER ALL WATERS E OF 
80W. COLD FRONT OVER THE SE GULF EXPECTED TO ABRUPTLY STALL JUST 
N OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TODAY THEN DRIFT BACK NW FRI. LOW PRES 
MOVES ACROSS THE GULF FRI NIGHT AND SAT AND DRAGS A STRONGER 
VERSION OF THIS FRONT INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN LATE SAT INTO SUN 
BEFORE STALLING. BROAD ELY TRADES RESUME MON. 

WARNINGS...

ATLC...
NONE.   

CARIBBEAN...
.NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ080...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT. 
GMZ082...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT N OF 
FRONT AND W OF 95W.

$$
FORECASTER NELSON