000 AGXX40 KNHC 020646 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 145 AM EST WED DEC 02 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... TWO SURFACE LOWS DEVELOPED ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH ONE AT 30N89W AND ANOTHER AT 29N93W. THIS WAS EXPECTED BUT SIMPLIFIED TO A SINGLE LOW IN ALPHANUMERIC PRODUCTS. STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING N-S BETWEEN 90-93W IS EXPECTED TO MOVE E SOON AS SECONDARY SURGE ROTATING AROUND WESTERN LOW HAS MOVED OFFSHORE SE TX. SEVERAL SURFACE REPORTS AT 30 KT SUPPORTS CONTINUATION OF MINIMAL GALE BUT WILL TURN OFF GALE OVER NE ZONE A LITTLE EARLIER TONIGHT. WILL MAX SEAS AT 15 FT OVER NE GULF. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WINDS WILL CLOCK TO NE OVER ALL WATERS BY LATE THU AND DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT N OF 24N...BUT REMAIN NE AT 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE SW WATERS AS FRONTAL REMNANTS EXTENDING ACROSS YUCATAN PENINSULA BACKS UP OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THU NIGHT. EXPECT GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN N OF THIS FRONT FRI AS IT SHIFTS NW TO ALONG 25N OVER THE E GULF WATERS. STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE S CENTRAL CONUS WILL BUILD INTO THE GULF PUSHING THE FRONTAL REMNANTS E INTO THE FL STRAITS LATE SAT. ASSOCIATED HIGH PRES WILL RACE ACROSS CONUS ALONG ABOUT 35N SAT NIGHT AND SUN WITH WINDS BECOMING SE OVER THE SW GULF LAT SUN. SW N ATLC... A LARGE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS NOTED ALONG 24N BETWEEN 74W AND 66W AND LIFTING NNE INDICATING FRONTAL TROUGH PERSISTS WITH SHIPS REPORTING NE 15-20 KT. JUST TO THE N THE E-W RIDGE IS ALONG 27N E OF 70W AS EXPECTED. THE SECOND FRONT HAS ALSO STALLED AS EXPECTED AND IS A BROAD FRONTAL CLOUD ZONE FROM 27.5N TO 31N W OF 65W. THE FRONTAL PORTION W OF 73W AND IS JUST BEGINNING TO LIFT NE WITH SURFACE WINDS AT 20-25 KT ALONG NE FL COAST WITH ONE SHIP REPORTING SE 30 KT. SO PAST FEWS DAYS GUIDANCE HAS DONE A VERY GOOD JOB SO FAR. EXPECT MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS BRIEFLY ONLY OVER FORECAST WATERS N OF 30N JUST AHEAD OF FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A LARGER AREA OF 25-35 KT DEPICTED IN HEADLINES. FRONT EXPECTED TO STALL FROM 31N74W TO SE FL THU NIGHT THEN DRIFT SLOWLY W AS ATLC RIDGE BUILDS W ALONG 28N EARLY FRI. STRONGER HIGH PRES WILL BUILD SE ACROSS FL FRI NIGHT AND BEGIN TO MOVE THE FRONT E AGAIN EARLY SAT. LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT MAY PASS THROUGH BERMUDA AROUND SUNRISE SUN AND E OF 31N65W SUNRISE MON...BUT ITS SOUTHERN SEGMENT WILL STALL OVER CENTRAL BAHAMAS SUN AND MON. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... ONLY A FEW REMNANT FRONTAL LOW CLOUDS OBSERVED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING AND THEY ARE RACING NW IN 15-20 KT SE FLOW. GRADIENT SHOULD SUPPORT 20-25 KT ALONG COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH EXTENDED PERIOD WITH ELY TRADES ABOUT 20 KT OVER ALL WATERS E OF 80W. NEXT COLD FRONT STILL EXPECTED TO ABRUPTLY STALL JUST N OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL LATE WED NIGHT AND THEN DRIFT BACK NW THU. SLY WINDS CONTINUE OVER NW CARIBBEAN FRI INTO EARLY SAT TILL THE FRONT RETURNS MIDDAY STALLING FROM E CUBA TO BELIZE SAT NIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY NE 15-20 KT THROUGH SUN. WARNINGS... ATLC... AMZ088...GALE WARNING LATE TODAY N OF 30N E OF FRONT TO 76W... CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ080 AND GMZ084 AND GMZ086...GALE WARNING N OF 27N E OF 92W. $$ FORECASTER NELSON