000 AGXX40 KNHC 300645 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 145 AM EST MON NOV 30 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... AN E-W RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN COASTAL PLAINS GULF IS RETRACTING ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFF TX COAST JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE THIS MORNING. MODELS AGREE WITH FRONT STALLING EARLY TONIGHT FROM FL BIG BEND TO A FRONTAL WAVE NEAR 27N96W...WITH QUASI STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUING S TO WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. N TO NE FLOW IN WAKE OF FRONT EXPECTED TO REACH A 30 KT MAX LATE TONIGHT WITH SEAS MAXING AT 10 FT AS FRONTAL WAVE DEEPENS INTO A SURFACE LOW PRES BY SUNRISE TUE. LOW WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NE ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND INLAND WESTERN FL PANHANDLE BY MIDDAY WED. NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING S OF LOW WILL THEN MOVE E AGAIN REACHING A POSITION FROM FL PANHANDLE TO CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE MIDDAY WED...AND MOVE SE OF ALL GULF WATERS AROUND NOON THU....NOTE ABOUT 6 HOURS LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. EXPECT WINDS BOTH W AND N OF FRONT TO MAX AT 30 KT THROUGH TUE...THEN THE SE TO S FLOW JUST AHEAD OF FRONT WILL STRENGTHEN TO MINIMAL GALE TUE NIGHT. ALL THIS REFLECTED IN GRAPHIC SUITE JUST RELEASED. EXPECT ASSOCIATED SEAS TO MAX OVER NE WATERS AT ABOUT 14 FT LATE WED IN SW-W FLOW ALONG COLD FRONT. BY THEN THE CAA WELL BEHIND THIS COLD AND IN WAKE OF A SECONDARY SURGE WILL PAINT A FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF NW WINDS AT 25-30 KT OVER THE N CENTRAL WATERS WITH HINTS OF MINIMAL GALE BRIEFLY LATE WED JUST E OF BRO. WINDS WILL QUICKLY CLOCK TO N AND DIMINISH TO 20-25 KT EARLY WED NIGHT. GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTING NLY FLOW WILL BE STRONGER MAINTAINING 20-25 KT THROUGH THU NIGHT WITH WINDS THEN CLOCKING TO SE OVER THE NW WATERS LATE FRI. SW N ATLC... QUASI STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM 26N55W TO WINDWARD PASSAGE. EXPECTING THE SOUTHERN SEGMENT TO WEAKEN TO A BROAD SHEAR AXIS MEANDERING FROM 20N TO 23N BETWEEN 72W AND 55W TONIGHT THROUGH TUE. A RIDGE FROM BERMUDA TO 27N80W WILL RETRACT E OF THE BAHAMAS ALONG 27N TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFF GEORGIA COAST TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY A 15 TO 20 KT WIND SHIFT AS IT MOVES THROUGH ATLC WATERS N OF BAHAMAS AND THROUGH BERMUDA LATE TUE...THEN STALLING ALONG 27N TUE NIGHT. REMNANTS OF FRONT WILL LIFT NE AS WINDS QUICKLY CLOCK TO S AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KT OVER AREA N OF BAHAMAS W OF 75W WED MORNING REACHING MINIMAL GALE EARLY WED NIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY THU JUST IN ADVANCE OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING OFF GEORGIA JUST BEFORE SUNRISE THU. NW WINDS BEHIND FRONT EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE BECOMING N 15-20 KT OVER NORTHERN BAHAMAS LATE FRI NIGHT. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... STILL SEE SOME FRONTAL REMNANTS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NE HONDURAS ATTM BUT MOST OF THE MOISTURE HAS DISSIPATED. WINDS N OF THE FRONT AT 15 KT PER LATEST ASCAT PASS. GRADIENT SHOULD SUPPORT 25 OCCASIONALLY 30 KT...ALONG COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH EXTENDED PERIOD. ELY TRADES INCREASE LATE WED ALL WATERS WITH SLY FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE AND ALSO INCREASING TO 20-25 KT WED NEXT COLD FRONT IN YUCATAN CHANNEL WED NIGHT STALLING FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO HONDURAS LATE THU NIGHT AND FRI WITH NLY WINDS TO 20 KT BEHIND FRONT. WARNINGS... ATLC... AMZ088...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED E OF FRONT LATE WED THROUGH LATE THU N OF 29N W OF 70W... CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ080 AND GMZ084 AND GMZ086...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED N OF 27N E OF 92W LATE TUE THROUGH LATE WED. $$ FORECASTER NELSON