000 AGXX40 KNHC 280639 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 145 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRES CENTER WILL MOVE E OVER THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW CURRENTLY AT 5 TO 10 KT INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT OVER THE NW WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING...AND FURTHER INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS E TO FL PANHANDLE. LITTLE CHANGE TILL NEXT FRONT MOVES TO TEXAS COAST SUNRISE MON AND ABRUPTLY STALLS FROM NW FLORIDA TO A FRONTAL WAVE AT 27N95W...WITH FRONT CONTINUING S TO CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE AT SUNRISE TUE. N TO NE FLOW IN WAKE OF FRONT EXPECTED TO REACH 30 KT MAX AS EARLY AS MON AFTERNOON WITH SEAS TO PERHAPS 10 FT. MODELS AGREE WITH FRONTAL WAVE DEEPENING INTO LOW PRES CENTER MON NIGHT...THEN RACING NE ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SE LOUISIANA LATE TUE AND OVER SE ALABAMA SUNRISE WED. LOW WILL THEN DRAG COLD FRONT E AGAIN TO POSITION FROM FLORIDA BIG BEND TO NW YUCATAN PENINSULA WED AFTERNOON AND SE OF GULF AROUND SUNRISE THU. EXPECT WINDS TO MAX AT 30 KT BOTH SIDES OF FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS. GUIDANCE CURRENTLY NOT HINTING AT GALE IN THE CAA BEHIND FRONT BUT IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW E OF FRONT OVER NE WATERS WED. LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS GALE THIS PACKAGE ON DAY 5. MAX SEAS SHOULD BE 11 FT BOTH SIDES OF FRONT. SW N ATLC... COLD FRONT FROM 31N60W TO WINDWARD PASSAGE ATTM BEHAVING AS FORECAST AND SHOULD REACH ALONG LINE 28N55W TO HISPANIOLA LATE TONIGHT WITH SOUTHERN SEGMENT WEAKENING TO A SHEAR AXIS FROM 20N TO 23N BETWEEN 72W AND 55W ON SUN. NW WINDS BEHIND FRONT AT MAX OF 20 KT PER 01Z AND 03Z ASCAT PASSES. SEAS ARE RUNNING 8 TO 13 FT NE OF THE BAHAMAIN CHAIN. EXPECTING 12 FT SEAS TO SHIFT E OF 65W MIDDAY SUN BUT A 10 TO 12 SECOND NW TO N SWELL TO PUSH S OVER WATERS E OF 70W THROUGH SUN NIGHT. SEAS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO ABOUT 8 FT BY THE TIME THEY REACH THE TROPICAL WATERS ALONG 23N MIDDAY SUN. N TO NE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT OVER BAHAMAS WILL DIMINSH TO 10 TO 15 KT TODAY AND BECOME E 10 KT OVER NW BAHAMAS SUN FOR COMFORTABLE RETURN PASSAGE TO SE FLORIDA SUN AFTERNOON. EASTERLY WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KT SE BAHAMAS THROUGH LATE SUN WITH NORTHERLY SEAS TO 7 FT EXPOSED ATLC PASSAGES. POST FRONTAL RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM BERMUDA TO GRAND BAHAMA SUNRISE MON AND LIE E TO W ALONG 27N MON NIGHT AS NEXT FRONT MOVES OFF GEORGIA COAST ACCOMPANIED BY A 15 TO 20 KT WIND SHIFT AS IT MOVES THROUGH ATLC WATERS N OF BAHAMAS TUE AND TUE NIGHT. WINDS WILL QUICKLY CLOCK BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 KT OVER AREA N OF BAHAMAS W OF 75W WED IN ADVANCE OF STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING OFF GEORGIA WED NIGHT. GUIDANCE HINTING AT SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE N OF 30N AHEAD OF FRONT WED BUT LITTLE CONFIDENCE ATTM. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... FRONT DISSIPATING FROM WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NE HONDURAS ATTM. WINDS N OF THE FRONT STILL AT 20 TO 25 KT PER 03Z ASCAT PASS. SEEMS LIKE N SEGMENT OF FRONT WILL SOON BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND MAY NOT REACH MONA PASSAGE...BUT MEANDER ALONG 20N INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT NW CARIBBEAN EARLY TONIGHT. GRADIENT SHOULD SUPPORT 20 OCCASIONLLY 25 KT...ALONG COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH EXTENDED PERIOD. 9 TO 11 SECOND N SWELLS WITH SEAS TO 8 FT WILL REACH ALONG 22N AROUND SUNSET SUN CONTINUING S TO ALONG 15N E OF THE CARIBBEAN MON NIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW SETS UP NW CARIBBEAN MON...AND INCREASES TO 15 TO 20 KT TUE NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF NEXT FRONT IN YUCATAN CHANNEL WED NIGHT. NE TO E TRADES AT A5 TO 20 KT ELSEWHERE. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. $$ FORECASTER NELSON 000 AGXX40 KNHC 280639 RRA MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 145 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRES CENTER WILL MOVE E OVER THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW CURRENTLY AT 5 TO 10 KT INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT OVER THE NW WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING...AND FURTHER INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS E TO FL PANHANDLE. LITTLE CHANGE TILL NEXT FRONT MOVES TO TEXAS COAST SUNRISE MON AND ABRUPTLY STALLS FROM NW FLORIDA TO A FRONTAL WAVE AT 27N95W...WITH FRONT CONTINUING S TO CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE AT SUNRISE TUE. N TO NE FLOW IN WAKE OF FRONT EXPECTED TO REACH 30 KT MAX AS EARLY AS MON AFTERNOON WITH SEAS TO PERHAPS 10 FT. MODELS AGREE WITH FRONTAL WAVE DEEPENING INTO LOW PRES CENTER MON NIGHT...THEN RACING NE ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SE LOUISIANA LATE TUE AND OVER SE ALABAMA SUNRISE WED. LOW WILL THEN DRAG COLD FRONT E AGAIN TO POSITION FROM FLORIDA BIG BEND TO NW YUCATAN PENINSULA WED AFTERNOON AND SE OF GULF AROUND SUNRISE THU. EXPECT WINDS TO MAX AT 30 KT BOTH SIDES OF FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS. GUIDANCE CURRENTLY NOT HINTING AT GALE IN THE CAA BEHIND FRONT BUT IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW E OF FRONT OVER NE WATERS WED. LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS GALE THIS PACKAGE ON DAY 5. MAX SEAS SHOULD BE 11 FT BOTH SIDES OF FRONT. SW N ATLC... COLD FRONT FROM 31N60W TO WINDWARD PASSAGE ATTM BEHAVING AS FORECAST AND SHOULD REACH ALONG LINE 28N55W TO HISPANIOLA LATE TONIGHT WITH SOUTHERN SEGMENT WEAKENING TO A SHEAR AXIS FROM 20N TO 23N BETWEEN 72W AND 55W ON SUN. NW WINDS BEHIND FRONT AT MAX OF 20 KT PER 01Z AND 03Z ASCAT PASSES. SEAS ARE RUNNING 8 TO 13 FT NE OF THE BAHAMIAN CHAIN. EXPECTING 12 FT SEAS TO SHIFT E OF 65W MIDDAY SUN BUT A 10 TO 12 SECOND NW TO N SWELL TO PUSH S OVER WATERS E OF 70W THROUGH SUN NIGHT. SEAS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO ABOUT 8 FT BY THE TIME THEY REACH THE TROPICAL WATERS ALONG 23N MIDDAY SUN. N TO NE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT OVER BAHAMAS WILL DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT TODAY AND BECOME E 10 KT OVER NW BAHAMAS SUN FOR COMFORTABLE RETURN PASSAGE TO SE FLORIDA SUN AFTERNOON. EASTERLY WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KT SE BAHAMAS THROUGH LATE SUN WITH NORTHERLY SEAS TO 7 FT EXPOSED ATLC PASSAGES. POST FRONTAL RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM BERMUDA TO GRAND BAHAMA SUNRISE MON AND LIE E TO W ALONG 27N MON NIGHT AS NEXT FRONT MOVES OFF GEORGIA COAST ACCOMPANIED BY A 15 TO 20 KT WIND SHIFT AS IT MOVES THROUGH ATLC WATERS N OF BAHAMAS TUE AND TUE NIGHT. WINDS WILL QUICKLY CLOCK BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 KT OVER AREA N OF BAHAMAS W OF 75W WED IN ADVANCE OF STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING OFF GEORGIA WED NIGHT. GUIDANCE HINTING AT SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE N OF 30N AHEAD OF FRONT WED BUT LITTLE CONFIDENCE ATTM. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... FRONT DISSIPATING FROM WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NE HONDURAS ATTM. WINDS N OF THE FRONT STILL AT 20 TO 25 KT PER 03Z ASCAT PASS. SEEMS LIKE N SEGMENT OF FRONT WILL SOON BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND MAY NOT REACH MONA PASSAGE...BUT MEANDER ALONG 20N INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT NW CARIBBEAN EARLY TONIGHT. GRADIENT SHOULD SUPPORT 20 OCCASIONALLY 25 KT...ALONG COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH EXTENDED PERIOD. 9 TO 11 SECOND N SWELLS WITH SEAS TO 8 FT WILL REACH ALONG 22N AROUND SUNSET SUN CONTINUING S TO ALONG 15N E OF THE CARIBBEAN MON NIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW SETS UP NW CARIBBEAN MON...AND INCREASES TO 15 TO 20 KT TUE NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF NEXT FRONT IN YUCATAN CHANNEL WED NIGHT. NE TO E TRADES AT A5 TO 20 KT ELSEWHERE. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. $$ FORECASTER NELSON