000 AGXX40 KNHC 270645 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 145 AM EST FRI NOV 27 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... COLD FRONT SE OF AREA. NORTHERLY WINDS AT 20 KT OVER WATERS S OF 25N WITH SEAS TO 10 FT IN THE BY OF CAMPECHE IN N SWELL. N WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT LATE AND SEAS ALSO BELOW 8 FT THROUGHOUT SAT NIGHT WITH MAX SEAS OF 7 FT ONLY VICINITY YUCATAN CHANNEL. HIGH PRES CENTER WILL POSITION OVER MISSISSIPPI DELTA SUNRISE SAT WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AT 5 TO 10 KT OVER NW WATERS. HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT E TO FL PANHANDLE SAT NIGHT WITH RETURN FLOW INCREASING TO 15 KT OVER THE WESTERN WATERS THEN INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT EARLY SUN ALONG NE MEXICAN COAST. LITTLE CHANGE TILL NEXT FRONT MOVES TO TEXAS COAST SUNRISE MON AND STALLS FROM NW FLORIDA TO 27N94W TO CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE SUNRISE TUE. NORTHERLY FLOW IN WAKE OF FRONT EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY REACH 30 KT MAX WITH SEAS TO PERHAPS 11 FT. SW N ATLC... BROAD FRONTAL ZONE HAS SEVERAL CLOUD LINE BOUNDARIES CONFUSING SURFACE ANALYSIS POSITIONS. MAIN WIND SHIFT OVER NW BAHAMAS ATTM AND EXPECTED TO REACH LINE FROM BERMUDA TO WINDWARD PASSAGE LATE TODAY...AND FROM 31N59W TO HISPANIOLA SUNRISE SAT. FRONT SEEMS STRONG ENOUGH TO CONTINUE E SAT NIGHT AND SUN FINALLY WASHING OUT OVER THE WATERS N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS SUN NIGHT INTO MON. NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND FRONT IN 20 TO 25 KT RANGE WHILE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT MIGHT BE A LITTLE STRONGER AT 20 TO 30 KT. AS NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT SAT NIGHT AS 10 SECOND N SWELLS WILL SUPPORT 15 FT SEAS OVER THE N CENTRAL WATERS. SEAS WILL DIMINISH TO ABOUT 8 FT BY THE TIME THEY REACH THE TROPICAL WATERS ALONG 23N SUN. ALTHOUGH N WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KT IN THE BAHAMA CHANNEL TODAY AND TONIGHT... THE MAX SEAS SHOULD ONLY BE ABOUT 7 FT OVER GULF STREAM W OF GRAND BAHAMA. N WINDS WILL VEER TO NE AT 10 TO 15 KT THROUGHOUT BAHAMAS BY LATE SAT WITH WINDS E AT 5 TO 10 KT...SEAS 1 TO 2 FT...ACROSS BAHAMA CHANNEL LATE SUN FOR RETURN PASSAGE TO SE FLORIDA. NE WINDS REMAIN AT 15 KT THROUGHOUT SOUTHERN BAHAMAS INTO SUN NIGHT WITH SOME N SWELL SNEAKING THROUGH THE EXPOSED ATLC PASSAGES. POST FRONTAL RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM BERMUDA TO GRAND BAHAMA SUNRISE MON AND LIE E TO W ALONG 27N SUNRISE TUE AS NEXT FRONT MOVES OFF GEORGIA COAST ACCOMPANIED BY A 15 TO 20 KT WIND SHIFT. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... BROAD FRONTAL ZONE IS ANALYZED FROM CUBAN COAST AT 80W TO NE HONDURAS. WINDS N OF THE FRONT AT 20 TO 25 KT. EXPECT N SEGMENT OF FRONT TO PASS THROUGH WINDWARD PASSAGE TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT AND REACH MONA PASSAGE AROUND SUNSET SAT. FRONT WILL WASH OUT OVER NW CARIBBEAN SAT AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS SUN AND MON. ASSOCIATED WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT AND 8 FT BY SUNSET SAT. GRADIENT SHOULD SUPPORT 20...OCCASIONALLY 25 KT...ALONG COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH EXTENDED PERIOD. 9 TO 10 SECOND N SWELLS WITH SEAS TO 8 FT WILL REACH ALONG 22N AROUND SUNSET SAT CONTINUING S TO ALONG 15N E OF THE CARIBBEAN MON NIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW SETS UP NW CARIBBEAN MON AND INCREASES TO 15 TO 20 KT TUE IN ADVANCE OF NEXT FRONT IN YUCATAN CHANNEL SOMETIME WED. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. $$ FORECASTER NELSON