000
AGXX40 KNHC 201925
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
230 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS PREDICTED BY THE COMPUTER MODELS...A LOW PRES IS DEVELOPING 
OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE GULF SINCE THIS MORNING. A QSCAT PASS 
FROM AROUND 1140 UTC SHOWED A COUPLE OF UNCONTAMINATED WIND 
BARBS WITH 35 KT PROBABLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG SHOWER AND 
TSTM ACTIVITY IN THAT AREA. THE FORECAST IS SHOWING WINDS IN THE 
20 TO 30 KT RANGE...WITH WINDS AND SEAS HIGHER NEAR THE TSTMS. 
THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NE TOWARDS SE LOUISIANA SAT 
MORNING... AND INLAND SOUTHERN ALABAMA SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN 
MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 28N95W TO 
26N97W THIS AFTERNOON...THEN WILL REACH FROM NEAR MOBILE ALABAMA 
TO BAY OF CAMPECHE SAT NIGHT AND FROM N FLORIDA TO EASTERN BAY 
OF CAMPECHE BY SUN MORNING THEN WEAKEN OVER THE FAR SE WATERS 
LATE SUN INTO MON. WEAK HIGH PRES WILL THEN SETTLE IN OVER THE N 
CENTRAL GULF BY LATE MON. AS THE LOW PRES MOVES INLAND...WINDS 
AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. WINDS 
ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP AGAIN ON TUE AS STRONG HIGH BUILDS IN 
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE N TROPICAL ATLC W OF 55W...
TRADE WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 2O TO 25 KT NEAR THE COAST OF 
COLOMBIA. SFC DATA AND A QSCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING CONFIRMED 
THESE WIND SPEEDS. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST DURING 
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOME INCREASE IN AREA COVERAGE MON AND 
TUE AS HIGH PRES N OF AREA STRENGTHS. 

SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 65W...
A 1014 MB SFC LOW NEAR IS NEAR 31N75W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING 
FROM LOW TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE 
FAR NE PORTION FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS. THE TROUGH 
WILL REACH FROM 31N71W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS SAT MORNING WHILE 
THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF AREA AS A WARM FRONT. HIGH 
PRES WILL BUILD SE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUN THEN SHIFT TO THE 
FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA MON THROUGH TUE. THE NEXT COLD 
FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE GULF OF 
MEXICO...WILL REACH THE FAR NW PORTION EARLY MON THEN EXTEND 
FROM 31N76W TO NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE FLORIDA EARLY TUE. NW TO N 
WINDS AND SEAS UP TO 5 FT WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT. WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 KT S OF 21N LATE MON INTO TUE AS PRES 
GRADIENT STRENGTHS ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A 1038 
MB HIGH OVER THE W ATLC NEAR NOVA SCOTIA ON MON MOVING TOWARD 
THE N-CENTRAL ATLC AND SLIGHTLY WEAKENING TUE.   

WARNINGS...

ATLC...
.NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
.NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
.NONE.

$$
FORECASTER GR