000 AGXX40 KNHC 171938 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 240 PM EST TUE NOV 17 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. ASCAT PASS VERIFIED GALE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SW GULF WITH 35 KT WINDS DEPICTED. THE GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING. THE UPPER LOW PROVIDING THE MOMENTUM FOR THE COLD FRONT WILL START TO LIFT OUT TONIGHT. THIS WILL SLOW AND EVENTUALLY HALT ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION. THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE BIG BEND AREA EXTENDING TO NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON WED NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY IS THEN EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO LIFT NWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND W GULF THU AND FRI AS A SFC LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE TX GULF COAST FRI...WITH SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THIS LOW BEARS WATCHING FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS EL NINO PATTERNS CAN PRODUCE GALE CENTERS WITH THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... PERSISTENT 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 27N66W THIS AFTERNOON. SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION CONTINUES OVER E PORTION OF FORECAST AREA FROM SHEAR LINE ASSOCIATED TO THIS FEATURE LOCATED NEAR 28N60W EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME ELONGATED AND BECOME MORE TROUGH LIKE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SHEAR LINE ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE FEATURE ENTERING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WED NIGHT WITH NE TO E SURFACE WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT N OF THE BOUNDARY. NE SWELL RESULTING FROM THIS FEATURE WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE HELPING PRODUCE THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT RESPONSIBLE FOR THE STRONG SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD FRIDAY WHICH WILL DIMINISH THE SURFACE WINDS AND ALLOW THE SEAS TO SUBSIDE THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD TROUGHING PREVAILS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN...WITH RIDGING WEAKENING ACROSS THE W HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN. FRONTAL TROUGH HAS REACHED THE VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SHIFT ESE THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE AFFECTING THE FAR NE CARIBBEAN...BUT MAINLY IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. WINDS ARE GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...WITH 15 TO NEAR 20 KT N TO NE FLOW W OF 75W IN THE LEE OF CUBA. SEAS ACROSS THE BASIN WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 5 FT...EXCEPT 4 TO 6 FT OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. OTHERWISE THE HIGHEST SEAS WILL BE CONFINED TO S OF 15 N. WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE GULF BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE IN THE GULF SECTION. THIS WILL BUILD SEAS TO NEAR 5 FT WED THROUGH FRI NIGHT...WITH COMBINED SEA CONSISTING OF WIND WAVES AND NW SWELL GENERATED FROM BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE GULF. WINDS ALONG THE COLOMBIAN COAST TO 15N WITH ALSO FRESHEN WED-THU...LIKELY REACHING 20-25 KT AND SEAS TO 8 FT. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. $$ FORECASTER AL