000 AGXX40 KNHC 170750 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 250 AM EST TUE NOV 17 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... THE WEAK HIGH OVER THE N GULF THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS BEEN NUDGED INTO THE FAR NE GULF...BETWEEN THE PERSISTENT AND DEEP LAYERED CUT OFF LOW ACROSS THE SW N ATLC...AND A COLD FRONT SWEEPING EWD ACROSS THE W HALF OF THE GULF. AT 06Z THE FRONT STRETCHED FROM NEAR THE MS-AL BORDER TO 26N91W AND INTO THE SW GULF COAST JUST S OF VERACRUZ. BUOYS ALONG THE TX COAST HAVE SHOWN 25 KT WINDS PAST SEVERAL HOURS THAT HAVE GRADUALLY BEGUN TO VEER MORE NNW. BUOY 42002 LOCATED E OF BROWNSVILLE HAS JUST REACHED 9.5 FT AT 8 SECS...WHILE A RECENT ASCAT OVERPASS SHOWED 25-30 KT N WINDS DIVING S ALONG FAR WRN GULF COAST. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS...OR AT LEAST FREQUENT GUSTS...BEHIND THE FRONT S OF 21N...BEGINNING AROUND 15-18Z AND OVER AND DONE WITH BY 00Z. OTHERWISE...THE FRESH NLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BUILD NLY WIND SWELL SPREADING S AND SE ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF NEXT 24 HOURS...PEAKING AROUND 11 FT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SW GULF ALONG ABOUT 24N. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE EAST AND SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE BASIN NEXT 36-48 HOURS...WHILE WEAKENING...STALLING FROM NRN FLORIDA TO JUST OFF THE NW COAST OF THE YUCATAN TO JUST N OF VERACRUZ BY MIDNIGHT WED NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY IS THEN EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO LIFT NWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND W GULF THU AND FRI AS A SFC LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE TX GULF COAST FRI...WITH SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THIS LOW BEARS WATCHING FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS EL NINO PATTERNS CAN PRODUCE GALE CENTERS WITH THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... PERSISTENT 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 26.5N67W THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME ELONGATED AND BECOME MORE TROUGH LIKE...THEN LIFT OUT TO THE NE TONIGHT AND WED. HOWEVER THIS EXIT WILL BE SHUNTED BACK TO THE S WED NIGHT AND THU AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE N CENTRAL AND NW ATLC BEGINS TO SINK S OF 35N...INDUCING A S TO SW PUSH OF SYNOPTIC FEATURES ACROSS N PORTIONS. A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SPIRAL OUT OF THE LOW AND EXTENDS S THEN SW INTO THE MONA PASSAGE...WITHIN CONVECTION CONTINUING ALONG AND 3-5 DEGREES TO THE E OF THIS BOUNDARY UNDER EXCELLENT DIVERGENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH. THIS WEAK BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY E AND SE WITH THE LOW OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WITH PERSISTENT CNVTN ALONG AND E OF IT...MOVING E ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND INTO THE ANEGADA PASSAGE WED AND WED EVENING AND BECOME DIFFUSE ACROSS ST MARTEEN AND THE EXTREME NE CARIBBEAN THU. WINDS AND SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE VERY GRADUALLY...WITH RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES INDICATING NO 20 KT WINDS ON W SIDE OF THE LOW....AND SEAS LIKELY 8 FT AND LESS. WINDS AND SEAS W OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO FADE VERY SLOWLY NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH CONTINUED PULSES OF N AND NE SWELL DOMINATING THE ATLC AND MOVING THROUGH THE ATLC PASSAGES OF THE CARIBBEAN. A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE AND CANADIAN MARITIMES OVERNIGHT...WITH AN INCREASE IN NE WINDS BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS WILL GENERATE LONG PERIOD NE SWELLS THAT ARE FORECAST TO ENTER THE NORTHERN WATERS OF THE FORECAST AREA WED WITH SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING AS HIGH AS 14 FT BY THU NIGHT AS A BROAD ZONE OF FRESH NE TO E WINDS JUST N OF THE SINKING FRONT SHIFTS S INTO THE AREA. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD TROUGHING PREVAILS OVER THE E CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG ABOUT 67W...WITH RIDGING WEAKENING ACROSS THE W HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN. FRONTAL TROUGH REACHING THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SHIFT ESE THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL PROVIDE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE FAR NE CARIBBEAN...BUT MAINLY IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. WINDS ARE GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...WITH 15 TO NEAR 20 KT N TO NNE FLOW W OF 75W IN THE LEE OF CUBA. SEAS ACROSS THE BASIN WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 5 FT...EXCEPT 4 TO 6 FT OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. OTHERWISE THE HIGHEST SEAS WILL BE CONFINED TO S OF 15 N. WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN ON WED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE GULF BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE IN THE GULF SECTION. THIS WILL BUILD SEAS TO NEAR 5 FT WED THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH COMBINED SEA CONSISTING OF WIND WAVES AND NW SWELL GENERATED FROM BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE GULF. WINDS ALONG THE COLOMBIAN COAST TO 15N WITH ALSO FRESHEN WED-THU...LIKELY REACHING 20-25 KT AND SEAS TO 8 FT. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING