000 AGXX40 KNHC 160754 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 254 AM EST MON NOV 16 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... A 1018 MB HIGH REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF THIS MORNING...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS THE NE AND CENTRAL GULF NEAR THE CENTER OF THIS FEATURE. 15 KT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WAS INDICATED BY A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH...NE-E ACROSS THE FAR S CENTRAL...AND SE ACROSS THE WRN GULF...WHERE SEAS WERE 4-5 FT. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT NE INTO THE SE US ON MONDAY...ENABLING A SURFACE COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE MONDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY TUE MORNING...AND WILL EXTEND SW TOWARD THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER A SMALL PORTIONS OF THE SW GULF...S OF 21N BEHIND THE FRONT...ON TUE. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL AND WEAKEN ON TUE AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROVIDING THE MOMENTUM FOR THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL LIFT OUT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT...AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL SHIFT THE BOUNDARY W AND NW ACROSS THE W GULF WED AND THU. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 30N66.5W THIS MORNING IS BEGINNING TO SLOWLY SHIFT TO A MORE SLY MOTION...AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THIS MOTION THROUGH TUE...REACHING NEAR 26N65W TUE EVENING...BEFORE THIS DEEP LAYERED LOW GETS PICKED UP BY A STRONG S/W TROF SWINGING SW THEN W ACROSS THE W CENTRAL ATLC MID WEEK. AN OLD FRONTAL SPIRALS OUT OF THE LOW AND CROSSES 30N62W TO THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA ALONG 69W. ACTIVE CONVECTION CONTINUES ALONG AND 3-6 DEGREES TO THE E OF THIS BOUNDARY UNDER EXCELLENT DIVERGENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH. THIS WEAK BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY E AND SE WITH THE LOW OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WITH PERSISTENT CNVTN ALONG AND E OF IT...REACHING NW PUERTO RICO TONIGHT...AND THEN MEANDER ACROSS PUERTO RICO TUESDAY...THEN MOVE E ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND INTO THE ANEGADA PASSAGE WED AND WED EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE VERY GRADUALLY. WINDS AND SEAS W OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO FADE VERY SLOWLY NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH CONTINUED PULSES OF N AND NE SWELL DOMINATING THE ATLC AND MOVING THROUGH THE ATLC PASSAGES OF THE CARIBBEAN. WAVE HEIGHTS HOWEVER WILL REMAIN BELOW 8 FT S OF 25N. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE AND CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT...WITH AN INCREASE IN NE WINDS BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS WILL GENERATE LONG PERIOD NE SWELLS THAT ARE FORECAST TO ENTER THE NORTHERN WATERS OF THE FORECAST AREA WED WITH SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING AS HIGH AS 14 FT BY THU NIGHT AS A BROAD ZONE OF FRESH NE TO E WINDS JUST N OF THE SINKING FRONT SHIFTS S INTO THE AREA. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD TROUGHING PREVAILS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG ABOUT 70W...WITH WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE W HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN. FRONTAL TROUGH REACHING THE E COAST OF HISPANIOLA THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SHIFT ESE THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL PROVIDE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE FAR NE CARIBBEAN...BUT MAINLY IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. WINDS ARE GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NEAR 20 KT ALONG THE NICARAGUAN COAST. SEAS ACROSS THE BASIN WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 5 FT...EXCEPT 4 TO 6 FT ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. OTHERWISE THE HIGHEST SEAS WILL BE CONFINED TO S OF 15 N. WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN ON WED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE GULF BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE IN THE GULF SECTION. THIS WILL BUILD SEAS TO NEAR 5 FT WED THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH COMBINED SEA CONSISTING OF WIND WAVES AND NW SWELL GENERATED FROM BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE GULF. WINDS ALONG THE COLOMBIAN COAST TO 15N WITH ALSO FRESHEN WED-THU...LIKELY REACHING 20-25 KT AND SEAS TO 8 FT. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING