000 AGXX40 KNHC 140825 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 325 AM EST SAT NOV 14 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... WINDS AND SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED DECIDEDLY ACROSS THE FAR ERN GULF THE PAST 24 HOURS AS A 1015 MB SURFACE HIGH HAS SUNKEN TO NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER YIELDING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN. NNW FLOW IS OCCURRING E OF 85W AT 10-15 KT...WITH SEAS 2-4 FT...WHILE SLY RETURN FLOW WAS DOMINATING THE WRN GULF AND SEAS BUILDING TO 3-4 FT ALONG THE UPPER MEXICAN AND TEXAS COASTS. THIS HIGH WILL SLIDE VERY SLOWLY E NEXT 48 HOURS AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY DROPPING IN OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS AND INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. SLY RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT TONIGHT INTO SUN...THEN DIMINISH MON AHEAD OF FRONT AS IT APPROACHES THE UPPER TEXAS AND SW LOUISIANA COASTS. THE FRONT IS NOT FORECAST TO MOVE BEYOND 90W BY WED AS THE UPPER TROUGH PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR THIS COLD FRONT LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUE-WED. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN STALL AND WEAKEN OVER THE EASTERN GULF BY MIDWEEK. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE MON EVENING THROUGH TUE NIGHT...FRESH NLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE FAR WRN GULF EXTENDING INTO THE SW GULF...WITH AN EPISODE OF GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE OVER THE SW GULF W OF 94W ON TUE. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... COMPLEX AND DANGEROUS WINTER STORM PERSISTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTS...AND HAS BEGUN TO DRIFT SE...WITH 998 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 34N72W. ACTIVE CONVECTION PERSISTS ALONG AN OLD COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SUPPORTED BY DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH...WITH THE BOUNDARY ENTERING THE AREA ALONG 31N65W EXTENDING SW THROUGH THE SE BAHAMAS AND ACROSS ERN CUBA AND INTO WEAKLY INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A PERSISTENT AND DYNAMIC FETCH OF NWLY WINDS ACROSS THE WRN SEMICIRCLE OF THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE N TO NW SWELL ACROSS THE WRN ATLC W OF 60W...AND MOVING W OF THE BAHAMAS AND INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. RECENT SCATTEROMETER WINDS SHOWED 25-30 KT WINDS STILL LINGERING ALONG THE SC AND GEORGIA COASTS DIMINISHING TO 20-25 KT OFFSHORE AND EXTENDING TO 26N AND 75W. SEAS ACROSS THIS AREA WERE 9-12 FT...WITH FLORIDA BUOYS SHOWING WAVE PERIODS OF 12-15 SECONDS NOT ENTIRELY DEPICTED BY WAVEWATCH III. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND CONTINUE TO SPIN DOWN BEFORE BEING PICKED UP BY AN UPPER TROUGH WED. THIS WILL FORCE THE OLD FRONT GRADUALLY E AND SE AND MAINTAIN ACTIVE CNVTN ALONG AND E OF IT...MOVING ACROSS THE ISLANDS OF THE N AND NE CARIBBEAN. NW SWELL WILL BUILD ACROSS THE ATLC AND PROPAGATE INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN ISLAND AND THROUGH THE PASSAGES SUN MORNING...WHILE NELY SWELL GENERATED ACROSS THE TOP OF THE LOW BEGIN TO HIT FLORIDA. PEAK SEAS ACROSS THE AREA WILL LIKELY BE SEEN THIS MORNING AS WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING THROUGH SE BAHAMAS ACROSS EASTERN CUBA EXTENDS ACROSS THE W COAST OF JAMAICA TO JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NICARAGUAN E COAST. NLY FLOW ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN TO THE W OF THIS WEAK BOUNDARY WAS YIELDING 10-15 KT ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN...AND 20 KT ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA AND SEAS 5-6 FT. E OF THE BOUNDARY ESE FLOW OF 10-15 KT PREVAILED...WITH SEAS 4 FT OR LESS...EXCEPT 15-20 KT S OF 13N E OF 70W. AS THE LOW AND THIS WEAKENING BOUNDARY SLIDE SLOWLY SE NEXT 48 HOURS...NLY FLOW WILL SPREAD E BEHIND FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...WHILE SELY FLOW WILL OPEN UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE SUNDAY NIGHT AND REACH THE E COAST OF PUERTO RICO AND THE SPANISH VIRGIN ISLANDS MONDAY EVENING. ACTIVE CNVTN IS EXPECTED N OF 16N ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS UPPER DIFFLUENCE WILL PREVAIL. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING