000 AGXX40 KNHC 131920 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 235 PM EST FRI NOV 13 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... LATEST ASCAT PASS ALONG WITH BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF WITH NW WINDS OVERT THE EASTERN GULF AND SE WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN GULF AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. ALL OF THE BUOYS ARE INDICATING SEAS 3 FT OR LESS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BUOY 42055 THAT IS REPORTING SEAS OF 5 FT. THIS PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE GULF THROUGH MON WITH SE RETURN FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KT PREVAILING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ON MON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE TEXAS COAST INTO THE WESTERN GULF. THE UPPER TROUGH PROVIDING THE ENERGY FOR THIS COLD FRONT WILL START TO LIFT OUT ON TUE...AND THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN STALL AND WEAKEN OVER THE EASTERN GULF BY MIDWEEK. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE...AN EPISODE OF GALE FORCE WINDS IS POSSIBLE OVER THE SW GULF ON TUE. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... COMPLEX AND DANGEROUS WINTER STORM CONTINUES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WITH LOW CENTERED NEAR 35N74W. FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM 31N68W TO 21N77W AND FRONTAL TROUGH FROM 31N66W TO EASTERN CUBA. CONVECTION IS ACTIVE ALONG THE FRONTAL TROUGH. SCATTEROMETER WINDS AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT N OF 25N AND W OF 66W. WAVE HEIGHTS ACROSS THE FAR NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL HOVER AROUND 9-11 FT E OF THE GULF STREAM THROUGH THE EVENING...AND THEN BUILD 10-12 FT OVERNIGHT AS THE EAST COAST LOW BEGINS TO BE NUDGED SE. THE LOW IS CUT OFF FROM THE MEAN UPPER FLOW...AND WILL TO DRIFT SLOWLY EAST...THEN WILL BE NUDGED SE OVER THE WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE SE U.S. AS A RESULT...THE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE SE INTO THE LOCAL WATERS AS IT SLOWLY WINDS DOWN. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SEAS AT OR ABOVE 8 FT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 25N IN NW SWELL THROUGH MON BEFORE AN IMPROVING TREND BEGINS. W OF 70W AND N OF 27N...NW TO W WINDS OF 20-25 KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING SLOWLY TO 20 KT OR LESS BY MON. SE OF THE LOW AND E OF THE FRONT...SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MON AS A LARGE HIGH ACROSS THE N CENTRAL ATLC DROPS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC AND MAINTAINS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND FRESH TO STRONG SE TO S FLOW N OF 25N ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...EXTENDING INTO E PORTIONS OF THE AREA. DUE TO THIS...CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO REMAIN ACTIVE ALONG AND TO THE E OF THESE TWO BOUNDARIES. CARIBBEAN SEA... OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING THROUGH SE BAHAMAS ACROSS EASTERN CUBA EXTENDS TO 20N82W. FRONTAL TROUGH AHEAD OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS EASTERN CUBA TO 16N80W. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES ALONG THE FRONTAL TROUGH. AN EARLIER SCATTEROMETER PASS AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE NW TO N WINDS OF 15 KT W OF THE TROUGH...AND 15 TO 20 KT OFF THE NICARAGUAN COAST. 4 TO 6 FT SEAS PREVAIL WEST OF THE TROUGH. TRADEWINDS PREVAIL E OF THE TROUGH...WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ALONG THE SRN CORRIDOR S OF 14N. THE FRONT WILL NOT MAKE MUCH MORE EASTWARD PROGRESS AS IT STALLS AND DISSIPATES WITHING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THOUGH A SHEAR LINE WILL LINGER AND GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...REACHING THE MONA PASSAGE ON TUE. TRADES OF 10 TO 15 KT WILL PREVAIL EXCEPT ALONG THE SRN CORRIDOR S OF 14 N WITH 15 TO 20 KT WINDS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. $$ FORECASTER AL