000 AGXX40 KNHC 130804 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 235 PM EST FRI NOV 13 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... N-NW FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS ALL BUT THE NW GULF THIS MORNING...WITH RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES SHOWING 20 KT FLOW E OF 85W...WITH 20-25 KT ALONG THE COAST EARLIER AND NOW SHIFTING S OF 25N. WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH ALONG THE SW LOUISIANA COAST SINKS S AND GRADIENT RELAXES. SEAS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO RESPOND WITH BUOY 42003 HAVING DROPPED FROM 9 FT THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 FT. SE RETURN FLOW WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE PERIOD ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF...AND KEEP SE TO S WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE BEFORE A COLD FRONT EXITS THE TEXAS COAST ON MON. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... COMPLEX AND DANGEROUS WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO POUND THE MID ATLC STATES WITH GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS...HIGH SEAS...AND PERSISTENT MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. A PAIR OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTEND ACROSS THE WATERS W OF 55W...AN OLD BOUNDARY FROM 31N69W THROUGH THE SE BAHAMAS...AND A SECONDARY FRONT FROM 31N71W THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND CENTRAL CUBA. A 00Z QUIKSCAT PASS THIS EVENING SHOWED NEAR GALE FORCE NW WINDS EXITING THE S CAROLINA AND UPPER GEORGIA COASTS...EXTENDING OUT ABOUT 45 NM AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING 25-30 KT. WAVE HEIGHTS ACROSS THE FAR NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL HOVER AROUND 9-11 FT E OF THE GULF STREAM THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN BUILD 10-12 FT OVERNIGHT AS THE EAST COAST LOW BEGINS TO BE NUDGED SE. THIS DEEP LAYERED LOW IS CUT OFF FROM THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND HAS BEGUN TO DRIFT SLOWLY E...BUT WILL BE NUDGED SE OVER THE WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE SE U.S. THIS WILL SHOVE THIS STORM SYSTEM SE THROUGH SAT AND THEN MORE SSE SUN AND MON...AND INTO THE LOCAL WATERS AS IT SLOWLY WINDS DOWN. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SEAS AT OR ABOVE 8 FT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 25N IN NW SWELL THROUGH MON BEFORE AN IMPROVING TREND BEGINS. W OF 70W AND N OF 27N...NW TO W WINDS OF 20-25 KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING SLOWLY TO 20 KT OR LESS BY MON. SE OF THE LOW AND E OF THE FRONT...SLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MON AS A LARGE HIGH ACROSS THE N CENTRAL ATLC DROPS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC AND MAINTAINS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND FRESH TO STRONG SE TO S FLOW N OF 25N ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL ATLC...EXTENDING INTO E PORTIONS OF THE AREA. DUE TO THIS...CNVTN IS LIKELY TO REMAIN ACTIVE ALONG AND TO THE E OF THESE TWO BOUNDARIES. CARIBBEAN SEA... OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY EXTENDS THROUGH SE BAHAMAS ACROSS ERN CUBA...ACROSS JAMAICA THEN SW TO THE NE COAST OF COSTA RICA...WITH ACTIVE CNVTN CONTINUING ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM THE BAHAMAS S. A SECONDARY FRONT WAS INDICATED FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS SW ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA AND THEN SOMEWHAT DIFFUSE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN. NWLY FLOW DIVING INTO THIS REGION BEHIND THE FRONTS CONTINUES TO FORCE CNVTN ALONG THE LEADING BOUNDARY....WITH 20-25 KT FLOW OCCURRING ALONG THE NE COAST OF HONDURAS AND E COAST OF NICARAGUA...WITH HIGHER WINDS SUGGESTED IN CNVTN BY A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS. THIS FLOW BEHIND THE FRONTS IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY TONIGHT AND BEGIN TO VEER N TO NE AS EAST COAST STORM SYSTEM SLIDES SLOWLY SE. AHEAD OF THE FRONT... E TO SE TRADEWINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT PREVAIL...EXCEPT 15-20 KT S OF 14N E OF 72W. THE FRONT WILL ONLY MAKE SLIGHTLY MORE EASTWARD PROGRESS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS BEFORE STALLING AND DISSIPATING. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AS THE FRONT STALL AND DISSIPATES. AFTERWORDS...10 TO 15 KT TRADES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 15 TO 20 KT WINDS ALONG THE SRN CORRIDOR S OF 14N. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING