000 AGXX40 KNHC 111645 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1145 PM EST WED NOV 11 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR FORT MYERS FLORIDA TO THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA. SCATTEROMETER AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW 20 TO 25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS OVER MOST OF THE GULF THIS MORNING...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE SE CORNER OF THE GULF. RECENT REPORTS FROM BUOY 42003 IN THE EAST CENTRAL GULF SHOW SEAS TO 12 FT IN NORTHERLY SWELL. SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED TO 7 TO 9 FT OVER THE WESTERN GULF...AND ARE ONLY AROUND 3 FT NEAR THE TEXAS COAST. HIGH PRES IS BUILDING OVER TEXAS AND NE MEXICO...AND WILL SHIFT OVER THE WESTERN GULF LATER TODAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH FRI FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE GULF. SE RETURN FLOW WILL START TO PICK UP OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF BY SAT AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRES SHIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. THIS TREND WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUN...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE TEXAS COAST ON MON. CARIBBEAN SEA... A COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN...AND CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR ROATAN. SHIP AND LAND BASED OBSERVATIONS...ALONG WITH A 12Z QUIKSCAT PASS SHOW NW TO N WINDS 20 TO 25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD AND EXTEND FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO SE NICARAGUA BY THU MORNING...BUT GRADUALLY WEAKENING. THE FRONT WILL STALL AND START TO DISSIPATE FROM WESTERN CUBA TO COSTA RICA BY FRI MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ENVELOPE MUCH OF THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO AS HIGH AS 8 FT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF HONDURAS THROUGH LATE THU WITH N SWELL. OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...10 SECOND NORTHERLY SWELL WITH HEIGHTS OF GENERALLY 5 TO 7 FT IS SLIPPING THROUGH THE MONA AND ANEGADA PASSAGES...AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU. LOOKING AHEAD TO THE WEEKEND...WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE FOR THE MOST PART OVER THE BASIN...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 20 KT TRADES OFF THE COAST OF VENEZUELA. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... A LOW PRES SYSTEM IS CENTERED NEAR 26N66W WITH AN ESTIMATED SURFACE PRES OF 1007 MB. A 1030Z QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED A BROAD AREA OF 20 TO 25 KT WINDS MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE SURFACE LOW WILL SHIFT NORTH AND DISSIPATE THROUGH THU. MEANWHILE...SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE INCREASING OVER THE WATERS N OF THE BAHAMAS AND E OF N FLORIDA. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRES SYSTEM...THE REMNANTS OF IDA...MOVING THROUGH GEORGIA. THE LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT...DRAGGING A TRAILING COLD FRONT WITH IT OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT E AND EXTEND FROM 31N77W TO CENTRAL CUBA BY THU MORNING...AND FROM 31N75W TO 21N77W BY EARLY FRI. WINDS TO 25 KT CAN BE EXPECTED BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE WATERS N OF 27N THROUGH FRI. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 11 FT IN THESE AREAS AS WELL. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT SOUTH TO ALONG 23N THROUGH FRI AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. THE LOW PRES WILL LIFT OUT THIS WEEKEND...ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH. NORTHERLY SWELLS WILL KEEP SEAS UP 8 TO 10 FT N OF 28N THIS WEEKEND EVEN AS THE WINDS DIMINISH...BUT THESE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH MONDAY. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. $$ FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN