000 AGXX40 KNHC 081909 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EST SUN NOV 08 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N GULF OF MEXICO... HURRICANE IDA CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND INTO THE S GULF WATERS NEAR 21.7N 86.1 AT 18 UTC. A RECENT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT MISSION DETERMINED THAT IDA HAS STRENGTHENED SLIGHTLY TO 85 KT WHICH IS A MINIMAL CAT 2 HURRICANE...BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BY MON NIGHT AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING SHEAR...MOVES OVER COLDER WATER...AND MOVES INTO A COLDER AIRMASS. IDA WILL REACH NEAR 22.8N 87.1W THIS EVENING AND THEN 25.6N 88.4W BY EARLY MON MORNING. IDA WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL BY EARLY TUE MORNING. THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK TAKES IDA INTO THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE OF FL. MEANWHILE A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC...IDA...AND A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES OVER THE W GULF CONTINUES TO RESULT IN STRONG 25-30 KT EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF...WITH GALE FORCE WINDS STILL OCCURRING OVER THE SE WATERS INCLUDING THE STRAITS OF FL. C-MAN STATION PLSF1 W-NW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS AND ALSO SAND KEY CONTINUE TO REPORT WINDS OF 35-40 KT. SEVERAL CRUISE SHIPS N OF W CUBA ALSO ARE REPORTING 35-40 KT WINDS. THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO BELOW GALE FORCE ON MON AS IDA MOVES INTO THE N CENTRAL GULF WITH THE PRES GRADIENT THEN WEAKENING SLIGHTLY. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BEGINNING IN THE W-NW GULF AND THEN TRANSLATING TO THE E. GFS PUSHES THE FRONT SE OF THE AREA BY WED AFTERNOON WITH 20-25 KT WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH THU...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING BY FRI AS THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS. SW N ATLC S OF 31N AND W OF 65W... A WEAKENING COLD FRONT OVER THE FAR SE PORTION OF THE AREA FROM 22N65W TO 21N70W WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT WITH STRONG HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA. STRONG NE-E 20-30 KT WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE SW N ATLC DUE TO COLD AIR ALOFT MOVING OVER THE WARMER OCEAN WATERS AND THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND HURCN IDA TO THE SW-W. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TUE AFTERNOON WITH THE HIGH WEAKENING AND SHIFTING MORE TO THE NE AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE SE U.S. COAST. SOME OF THE REMNANT ENERGY AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IDA MAY ALSO GET ABSORBED INTO THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N77W TO 26N79.5W BY WED AFTERNOON WITH STRONG S-SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND STRONG W-NW WINDS BEHIND IT. THE FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN OVER THE E PORTION WITH THE STRONG WINDS CONTINUING. A NEW SET OF BUILDING NORTHERLY LONG PERIOD SWELL ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT THU THROUGH FRI. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC W OF 55W... HURCN IDA EXITING THE EXTREME NW CARIBBEAN MOVING THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 21.7N 86.1 AT 18 UTC. THE HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT N OF 19N W OF 83W THROUGH THIS EVENING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH MON AS THE SYSTEM SPEEDS UP AND MOVES INTO THE N CENTRAL GULF. OTHER THAN IDA...THE PRES GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES CONTINUING THROUGH FRI. LATEST RUN OF THE GFS PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH A PORTION OF THE NW CARIBBEAN WED NIGHT INTO THU...STALLING OUT NEAR JAMAICA THU NIGHT INTO FRI. NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT...IF THE FRONT MANAGES TO MAKE IT THAT FAR TO THE E-SE. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .AMZ082...HURRICANE WARNING N OF 19N W OF 83W THROUGH THIS EVENING... GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ084...HURRICANE WARNING THROUGH TUE MORNING. .GMZ080...TROPICAL STORM WARNING N OF 25N E OF 91W MON THROUGH MON NIGHT. .GMZ086...TROPICAL STORM WARNING S OF 25N W OF 84W THROUGH TUE. .GMZ086...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT. .GMZ084...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED N OF 28N E OF 88W TUE. .GMZ086...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED N OF 29N W TUE NIGHT AND WED. $$ FORECASTER LEWITSKY