000 AGXX40 KNHC 071042 AAA MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 540 AM EST SAT NOV 07 2009 UPDATED WARNINGS SECTION MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N GULF OF MEXICO... VERY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE GULF DUE TO THE PRES BETWEEN TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA S OF THE AREA AND STRONG HIGH PRES TO THE N CONTINUES TO RESULT IN STRONG E WINDS ACROSS ALL ZONES EXCEPT THE FAR NW PORTION. BUOY OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING NE-E WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT OVER THE SE AND S PORTIONS INCLUDING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND WATERS NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 2324 UTC LAST NIGHT SHOWED SEVERAL WIND VECTORS OF 30 KT OVER THE FAR SE WATERS S OF 25N E OF 84W. A SHIP WITH CALLER ID "H3GS" NEAR 23N87W REPORTED NE WINDS OF 37 KT NEAR 0400 UTC THIS MORNING. THE QUIKSCAT REVEALED WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT OVER OVER THE SW GULF IN WESTERN PORTION OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. AS A RESULT OF THE DURATION AND LARGE ELY FETCH OF THESE WINDS...SEAS HAVE GROWN UP TO 13 FT OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE MIDDLE GULF. SEAS ELSEWHERE ARE IN THE RANGE OF 8-12 FT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NW AND N WATERS WHERE SEAS ARE LOWER...IN THE RANGE OF 4-6 FT. WITH THE PARENT HIGH CENTER N OF THE AREA SLIDING E INTO NEXT WEEK AND TROPICAL RECENTLY UPGRADED TROPICAL STORM IDA OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN W CUBA AND HONDURAS AND FORECAST TO TRACK NNW TOWARDS THE FAR S CENTRAL GULF NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA MON AND NNE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MIDDLE GULF MON THROUGH WED...THE STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD ALLOWING FOR HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS FOR JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE GULF. LATEST RUN OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND EVEN THE REGIONAL NAM HAVE COME INTO SOME CONSENSUS THAT LOW PRES OF 1010 MB OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N95W WILL BEGIN TO LIFT N ON SUN AS IDA NEARS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE LOW THEN BECOMES ABSORB INTO THE CIRCULATION OF IDA MON AND TUE. WILL LOWER GALE WARNING CURRENTLY IN EFFECT OVER THE FAR SW GULF W AND SW OF THE 1010 MB LOW AS THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT PINCHED HERE AS WEAKEN ENOUGH FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH TO JUST BELOW GALE FORCE. SW N ATLC S OF 31N AND W OF 65W A WEAKENING COLD FRONT FROM 26N65W TO 23N72W WILL WASH OUT THROUGH EARLY SUN MORNING AS THE AREA OF STRONG HIGH PRES MENTIONED ABOVE UNDER GULF OF MEXICO BUILDS E ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT WITH THE HIGH WILL BRING INCREASING NE WINDS TO MUCH OF THE WATERS N OF ABOUT 22N INTO SAT AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS THEN VEER MORE TO THE E SAT THROUGH MON...AND ESE LATE MON THROUGH WED W OF 75W AS THE HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER E AND IDA TURNS TO THE NE AND E OVER THE EASTERN GULF. LATEST WAVEWATCH SHOWS SEAS BUILDING UP TO 13 FT E OF THE BAHAMAS BY MON...SUBSIDING TO 10 FT BY WED. NE SWELLS WILL PROPAGATE W THROUGH BAHAMA PASSAGES SAT THROUGH MON...WITH SEAS BUILDING QUITE RAPIDLY OVER THE GULF STREAM WATERS. SEAS SUBSIDE ON TUE AND WED. EXPECT NLY SWELLS UP TO 12 FT TO REACH AS FAR S AS WATERS NEAR THE SE BAHAMAS BY MON ...THEN SUBSIDE TO 9 FT ON WED. NLY SWELLS OF 8 FT SHOULD IMPACT THE WATERS NEAR PUERTO RICO BEGINNING SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC W OF 55W... IDA WAS UPGRADED TO BACK TO A TROPICAL STORM STORM A SHORT WHILE AGO OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN ABOUT 110 NM NE OF HONDURAS WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 35 KT GUSTS TO 45 KT WITH A MOTION TO THE N AT 6 KT. IDA IS FORECAST TO TRACK TOWARDS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL REACHING NEAR 18N85W BY TONIGHT...AND ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THROUGH LATE SUN. SEAS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN HAVE SUBSIDED SINCE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD ONCE AGAIN LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY MON. JUST HOW HIGH THE GIVEN SEA STATE IS ACHIEVED WILL HEAVILY DEPEND ON HOW MUCH IDA WILL BE IN TACT AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE NW CARIBBEAN ONCE MOVING BACK OFF THE COAST. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. SEAS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD UP TO 6-9 FT IN LONG PERIOD NLY SWELLS BEGINNING LATE SUN THROUGH MON...AND POSSIBLY UP 10 FT TUE AND WED. NE SWELLS WILL BUILD SEAS UP TO 8 FT THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE TUE AND WED. WARNINGS...UPDATED ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .AMZ082...TROPICAL STORM WARNING N OF 17N W OF 84W... GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ084 AND GMZ086...TROPICAL STORM WARNING EXPECTED SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED S OF 28N E OF 89W... $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE