000 AGXX40 KNHC 060758 AAA MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 300 AM EST THU NOV 06 2009 ...UPDATED TO ADD NEW SEA STATE MAX VALUE UNDER SW N ATLC S OF 31N AND W OF 65W SECTION... MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N GULF OF MEXICO... TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE GULF DUE TO THE PRES BETWEEN TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA S OF THE AREA AND STRONG HIGH PRES TO THE N IS RESULTING IN INCREASING WINDS ACROSS JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE GULF AS SEEN IN BUOY REPORTS FROM LATE LAST NIGHT AND INTO THIS MORNING. NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE PRESENTLY BEING REPORTED S OF 28N E OF 92W AND S OF 26N W OF 92W. DUE TO THE DURATION AND LARGE ELY FETCH OF THESE WINDS...SEAS HAVE ALREADY BUILD UP TO 13 FT OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE MIDDLE GULF. SEAS ELSEWHERE ARE IN THE RANGE OF 8-12 FT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NW AND N WATERS WHERE SEAS ARE LOWER...IN THE RANGE OF 4-6 FT. THE PARENT HIGH CENTER N OF THE AREA SLIDING E THROUGH MON AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE NW CARIBBEAN APPROACHING THE FAR S CENTRAL GULF NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA MON...THE STRONG GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PRODUCING VERY ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS FOR JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE GULF. GLOBAL MODELS AND THE REGIONAL NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT LOW PRES WILL SPIN UP IN THE VICINITY OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TODAY...AND SLOWLY MOVE N THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH SOME OF THE MODELS WITH RESPECT TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW SO WILL GFS AND UKMET BEING THE FASTEST IN TAKING THE LOW N. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE EUROPEAN AND NAM FOR FUTURE TRACK OF THIS LOW FOR THIS FORECAST. TIGHT PRES GRADIENT PINCHED OFF OVER THE FAR SW GULF IS INDUCING GALE FORCE WINDS S OF 21N W OF 94W. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO LAST THROUGH AT LEAST SAT AFTERNOON...BUT COULD BE PROLONGED DUE TO THE NEW LOW THAT FORMS BEING DEEPER. SW N ATLC S OF 31N AND W OF 65W...UPDATED A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT FROM 31N67W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS THE AREA OF STRONG HIGH PRES MENTIONED ABOVE UNDER GULF OF MEXICO BUILDS E ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING NE WINDS TO MUCH OF THE WATERS N OF ABOUT 22N INTO SAT AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS THEN VEER MORE TO THE E LATER SAT AND THROUGH MON AS THE HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER E. SEAS BUILD UP TO 13 FT E OF THE BAHAMAS BY MON PER LATEST WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE. HIGH SEAS WILL ALSO PROPAGATE W THROUGH BAHAMA PASSAGES SAT THROUGH MON...WITH SEAS BUILDING QUITE RAPIDLY OVER THE GULF STREAM WATERS. EXPECT NLY SWELLS UP TO 10 FT TO REACH AS FAR S AS WATERS NEAR THE SE BAHAMAS BY MON. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC W OF 55W... LATEST POSITION OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA FROM NHC WAS INLAND NICARAGUA NEAR 14.1N 84.0W WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 30 KT GUSTS TO 40 KT WITH A MOTION TO THE N AT 6 KT. IDA IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE NORTHERN HONDURAS COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN INTENSIFY BACK TO A TROPICAL STORM NEAR 17N85W BY SAT AFTERNOON AS IT TRACKS TOWARDS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL REACHING NEAR 19N85W BY LATE SAT NIGHT...AND ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THROUGH LATE SUN. SEAS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN HAVE SUBSIDED SINCE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD ONCE AGAIN LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY MON. JUST HOW HIGH THE GIVEN SEA STATE IS ACHIEVED WILL HEAVILY DEPEND ON HOW MUCH IDA WILL BE IN TACT AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE NW CARIBBEAN ONCE MOVING BACK OFF THE COAST. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. SEAS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD UP TO 7-10 FT IN LONG PERIOD NLY SWELLS BEGINNING LATE SUN THROUGH MON. NE SWELLS WILL BUILD SEAS UP TO 8 FT THROUGH ATLC PASSAGES BEGINNING MON. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .AMZ084...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM 17N TO 18N BETWEEN 84W 85.5W. GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ082...GALE WARNING S OF 21N W OF 94W. $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE