000 AGXX40 KNHC 050709 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 215 AM EST THU NOV 05 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE TROUGH (THE REMNANTS OF A STATIONARY FRONT) REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST GULF FROM 25N81W TO 23N86W TO NEAR CAROCOL MEXICO ON THE N YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY THEN WILL DISSIPATE LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE HAS WEAKENED WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS NOW OCCURRING. EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED 25 TO 30 KT NW-N WINDS IN THE FAR SW GULF WITH 20-25 KT N-NE WINDS COVERING THE MAJORITY OF THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WATERS EXCEPT NEAR THE TX COAST WHERE WINDS ARE 10-15 KT. HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD DOWN FROM THE GULF COAST STATES TODAY THEN WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE E OVER THE SE U.S. STATES. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOW PRES TO THE SE-S WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE GULF THROUGH FRI. LATEST GFS AND NAM MODEL RUNS DEVELOP A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FRI WITH NE-N WINDS ON THE W SIDE OF THE LOW INCREASING TO GALE FORCE BY 12 UTC FRI AND CONTINUING THROUGH 00 UTC SUN. WINDS THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE LOW SHIFTS TO THE N-NW AND THE HIGH OVER THE SE U.S. SHIFTS EASTWARD TO A POSITION NEAR BERMUDA WEAKENING THE PRES GRADIENT. MEANWHILE...03 UTC NHC TRACK BRINGS T.S. IDA TO 21.5N 86.5W IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BY 00 UTC TUE. SW N ATLC S OF 31N AND W OF 55W... A WEAK AND SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IS IN PLACE OVER THE NE PORTION OF THE AREA FROM 29N65W TO 28N70W WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THERE TO NEAR NASSAU BAHAMAS. THIS FRONT WILL BECOME DIFFUSE AND DISSIPATE LATER TODAY. IN THE UPPER LEVELS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS MORNING WHICH WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S. TODAY. A STRONG NORTHERLY WIND SURGE SETS UP BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH SUN AS THE COMBINATION OF HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE SE U.S. STATES AND A LOW DEEPENING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST RESULTS IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. NORTHERLY SWELL GENERATED BY THESE WINDS WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE AREA BUILDING SEAS UP TO 12 FT OVER THE N PORTION FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN. THE HIGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT PERSISTENT 20-25 KT EASTERLY WINDS...AND 8 TO 12 FT SEAS CONTINUING. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC W OF 55W... T.S. IDA WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 83.2W EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SATELLITE ESTIMATED WINDS OF 55 KT. IDA IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE E COAST OF NICARAGUA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS IT CONTINUES MOVING TO THE NW NEAR 6 KT. SHORT PERIOD WAVES OF 8 TO 12 FT (WITH MAX SEAS OF 19 FT) WILL AFFECT THE CARIBBEAN WATERS S OF 18N W OF 80W. OTHERWISE...SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRES REMAINS CENTERED WELL N OF THE AREA WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUING TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN RESULTING IN PERSISTENT RARE LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED WELL N OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR THE WEAK GRADIENT TO CONTINUE. NORTHERLY SWELL OF UP TO 8 FT WILL ATTEMPT TO PROPAGATE THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGES BY MON. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .AMZ084...TROPICAL STORM WARNING N OF 11N W OF 82W. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. $$ FORECASTER LEWITSKY