000 AGXX40 KNHC 041930 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EST WED NOV 04 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF FROM 24N81W TO 22N90W TO 18N93W. THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY...AND BECOME LESS DEFINED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ACTIVE IN THE SW GULF ALONG THE FRONT. THIS MORNINGS QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED THAT WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW 35 KT...SO THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. HIGH PRES OVER THE GULF COAST STATES WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE GULF WITH 20 TO 25 KT WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF BY THU NIGHT. AFTER THU NIGHT...THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD WHICH WILL GRADUALLY RELAX THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. AS A RESULT...THE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE GULF WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH SUN...WITH 20-25 KT WINDS STILL PERSISTING OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT. SW N ATLC S OF 31N AND W OF 55W... A WEAK AND SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IS IN PLACE OVER THE NW PORTION FROM 31N70W TO NEAR THE SE FLORIDA COAST. THIS FRONT WILL BECOME DIFFUSE AND DISSIPATE LATER TONIGHT INTO THU AS AIRMASS MODIFICATION REDUCES THE DISCERNIBLE FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY PUSHING A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S. ON THU. A STRONG NORTHERLY WIND SURGE SETS UP BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THU THROUGH SUN AS THE COMBINATION OF HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE SE U.S. STATES AND A LOW DEEPENING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST RESULTS IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. NORTHERLY SWELL GENERATED BY THESE WINDS WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE AREA BUILDING SEAS UP TO 12 FT OVER THE W PORTION SAT THROUGH SUN. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC W OF 55W... NEWLY FORMED T.S. ELEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 82.0W THIS MORNING WITH SATELLITE ESTIMATED WINDS OF 30 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY INTO A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT AS IT DRIFTS NORTHWEST AT 7 KT. SHORT PERIOD WAVES OF 8 TO 12 FT WILL AFFECT THE CARIBBEAN WATERS S OF 18N W OF 80W. OTHERWISE...SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRES REMAINS CENTERED WELL N OF THE AREA WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUING TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN RESULTING IN RARE LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED WELL N OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR THE WEAK GRADIENT TO PERSIST. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .AMZ084...TROPICAL STORM WARNING N OF 11N W OF 81W. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. $$ FORECASTER AL