000 AGXX40 KNHC 040650 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM EST WED NOV 04 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF FROM 25N81W TO 23N89W TO 18N93W. THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY...AND BECOME LESS DEFINED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ACTIVE IN THE SW GULF ALONG THE FRONT. AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED SEVERAL 35 KT NW WIND BARBS IN THE GALE WARNING AREA. 00 UTC MODEL RUNS OF THE GFS...ECMWF AND NAM HAVE ALL BACKED OFF ON GALE FORCE WINDS BY LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE GALE WARNING THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 25-30 KT WINDS THEREAFTER AS THE PRES GRADIENT RELAXES SLIGHTLY WITH LOW PRES TO THE S IN THE EPAC WEAKENING. HIGH PRES OVER THE GULF COAST STATES WILL STRENGTHEN AND CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE GULF TODAY WHICH WILL INCREASE EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF TO 20-25 KT BY LATE TONIGHT. WINDS OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE GULF WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH SUN AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE GULF COAST STATES SHIFTS EASTWARD TO A POSITION OVER THE SE U.S. WITH 20-25 KT WINDS STILL PERSISTING OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT. SW N ATLC S OF 31N AND W OF 55W... A WEAK AND SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IS IN PLACE OVER THE NW PORTION FROM 31N70W TO NEAR THE SE FLORIDA COAST. THIS FRONT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND EXTEND FROM 31N61W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY EARLY TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BECOME DIFFUSE AND DISSIPATE LATER TONIGHT INTO THU AS AIRMASS MODIFICATION REDUCES THE DISCERNIBLE FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY PUSHING A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S. MAINLY JUST N OF THE AREA ON THU. A STRONG NORTHERLY WIND SURGE SETS UP BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THU THROUGH SUN AS THE COMBINATION OF HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE SE U.S. STATES AND A LOW DEEPENING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST RESULTS IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. NORTHERLY SWELL GENERATED BY THESE WINDS WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE AREA BUILDING SEAS UP TO 12 FT OVER THE NE PORTION BY SAT THROUGH SUN. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC W OF 55W... AREA OF LOW PRES IN THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 11N81W STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO INTENSIFY INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE TODAY AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS NORTHWARD. LATEST SATELLITE ANALYSIS ESTIMATED WINDS OF 20-25 KNOTS AROUND THE LOW. SHORT PERIOD WAVES OF 6 TO 8 FT WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OUT TO 180 NM OF THIS FEATURE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ELSEWHERE...NORTHERLY SWELL UP TO 6 FT WITH PERIODS OF 10 TO 12 SECONDS CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH THE ATLANTIC PASSAGES FROM THE NW ATLANTIC. THIS SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DECAY THROUGH TONIGHT. SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRES REMAINS CENTERED WELL N OF THE AREA WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUING TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN RESULTING IN RARE LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED WELL N OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR THE WEAK GRADIENT TO PERSIST. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ082...GALE WARNING S OF 21N W OF 94W. $$ FORECASTER LEWITSKY