000 AGXX40 KNHC 030654 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM EST TUE NOV 03 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAKENING A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS DRAPED OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF FROM 26N82W TO 22N93W TO 18N94W. THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE EASTERN PORTION BECOMING LESS DEFINED OVER TIME. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TODAY IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FEATURE. HIGH PRES WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE GULF COAST STATES LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT TIGHTENING THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE N AND LOW PRES TO THE S OVER THE EPAC. GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO INDICATE MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS S OF 21N AND W OF 94W BEGINNING WED MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH WED NIGHT. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS WINDS CAPPED IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE. ELSEWHERE NE WINDS ALSO INCREASE TO 15-20 KT OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE GULF AND 20-25 KT OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A LULL WITH WINDS BELOW GALE FORCE THU THROUGH THU NIGHT...BUT GFS IS NOW DEVELOPING A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY EARLY FRI WITH GALE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN. FOR NOW WILL KEEP WINDS 25-30 KT FOR FRI UNTIL PERSISTENCE IS SEEN IN MODEL RUNS. HIGH PRES REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...WITH IT SHIFTING ONLY SLIGHTLY TO A POSITION OVER THE SE U.S. STATES. SW N ATLC S OF 31N AND W OF 55W... A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT IS IN PLACE OVER THE FAR NW PORTION FROM 31N77W TO NEAR MELBOURNE FLORIDA. THIS FRONT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND EXTEND FROM 31N66W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY WED. THE FRONT WILL BECOME DIFFUSE WED NIGHT INTO THU AS AIR MODIFICATION REDUCES THE RECOGNIZABLE FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY MIDWEEK PUSHING ANOTHER SURFACE COLD FRONT OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S. JUST N OF THE AREA ON THU. A STRONG NORTHERLY WIND SURGE SETS UP BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THU THROUGH SAT AS HIGH PRES STRENGTHENS OVER THE SE U.S. STATES. IN ADDITION NORTHERLY SWELL GENERATED BY A MID-LATITUDE LOW PRES SYSTEM WELL TO THE N OF OUR AREA WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE AREA BUILDING SEAS UP TO 12 FT OVER THE NE PORTION BY SAT. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC W OF 55W... NORTHERLY SWELL UP TO 7 FT WITH PERIODS OF 10 TO 12 SECONDS CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH THE ATLANTIC PASSAGES FROM THE NW ATLANTIC. THIS SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DECAY THROUGH MIDWEEK. SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRES REMAINS CENTERED WELL N OF THE AREA WITH A LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUING TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN RESULTING IN RARE LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED WELL N OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR THE WEAK GRADIENT TO CONTINUE. OTHERWISE AN AREA OF LOW PRES REMAINS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. GFS PREVIOUSLY KEPT THE LOW QUASI-STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BUT THE PAST FEW RUNS NOW GRADUALLY MOVE IT TO THE N-NW TODAY THROUGH SAT WHICH IS NOW MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION. BOTH MODELS MOVE THE LOW TO A POSITION CENTERED NEAR THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER/COAST BY SAT AFTERNOON. WINDS WOULD INCREASE TO 25-30 KT WITH RESULTANT SHORT PERIOD SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT BY THE END OF THE WEEK OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE BASIN. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED AND WED NIGHT S OF 21N W OF 94W. $$ FORECASTER LEWITSKY