000 AGXX40 KNHC 021903 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 PM EST MON NOV 02 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAKENING A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS DRAPED OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF. THIS FRONT WILL BECOME DIFFUSE AND DISSIPATE LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THE GALE WARNING WAS DISCONTINUED THIS MORNING AS AN EARLY MORNING QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED WINDS HAVE DECREASED BELOW GALE CONDITIONS. A JASON ALTIMETER PASS INDICATES SEAS OF 8 FEET REMAIN IN THE SW GULF S OF 22N. A FAIRLY PERSISTENT PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILING OVER GULF COAST STATES AND LOW PRES TO THE S OVER THE EPAC. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WHICH WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NE 20-25 KT WINDS OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF. GFS PROGS GALE CONDITIONS IN THE FAR SW GULF ON WED INTO FRI. SW N ATLC S OF 31N AND W OF 55W... A COLD FRONT IS IN PLACE OVER THE NW WATERS FROM 31N76W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS FRONT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND EXTEND FROM 31N70W TO SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY...THE FRONT WILL BECOME DIFFUSE AS AIR MODIFICATION REDUCES THE FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY MIDWEEK. THIS WILL HELP FOR ANOTHER SURFACE COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S. ON THURSDAY. EASTERLY SWELLS ARE PROPAGATING INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. WITH LINGERING NORTHERLY SWELL PRESENT...THIS IS CREATING CONFUSED SEAS ACROSS THIS AREA. THE SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE BY MIDWEEK. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...THE STRONG HIGH PRES CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF COAST STATES WILL SHIFT TO THE E AND BE CENTERED OVER THE SE U.S. STATES. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. NE WINDS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE BEGIN THU NIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST FRI NIGHT. A MID-LATITUDE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA...BUT WILL GENERATE A NORTHERLY SWELL WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW PART OF THE AREA ON FRI NIGHT. WAVEWATCH INDICATES SEAS BUILD CLOSE TO 12 FT BY LATE FRI NIGHT. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC W OF 55W... WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERED WELL N OF THE AREA...A LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT PREVAILS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN RESULTING IN RARE LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES. THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED WELL N OF THE AREA ALLOWING FOR THE WEAKER GRADIENT TO CONTINUE. NORTHERLY SWELL UP TO 7 FT WITH PERIODS OF 10 TO 12 SECONDS CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH THE ATLANTIC PASSAGES FROM THE NW ATLANTIC. THIS SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DECAY THROUGH MIDWEEK. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED AND WED NIGHT S OF 21N W OF 94W. $$ FORECASTER AL