000 AGXX40 KNHC 011722 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1220 PM EDT SUN NOV 01 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1130Z QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF GENERALLY MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS N OF A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR TAMPA FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR CIUDAD DEL CARMEN. THE QUIKSCAT ALSO SHOWED LIMITED AREAS OF WINDS TO 25 KT ALONG THE FRONT...MAINLY ALONG THE NORTHERN YUCATAN COAST. MAIN ISSUE FOR THE NEAR TERM IS THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS OVER THE FAR SW GULF OF MEXICO S OF 21N W OF 94W. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MOMENT. THERE HAVE BEEN NO SCATTEROMETER OR SSMI PASSES OVER THIS AREA RECENTLY...BUT BUOY 42055 IS SHOWING 20 TO 25 KT...AND LAND-BASED SITES FROM VERACRUZ TO COATZACOALCOS ARE SHOWING 15 TO 20 KT. IT IS LIKELY THAT 25 TO 30 KT WINDS ARE STILL IN PLACE JUST OFF THE COAST GIVEN FUNNELING EFFECTS...BUT BELOW GALE ALREADY. GFS KEEPS 30M WINDS TO 35 KT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS IN THE FAR SW GULF. THE PROBABILITY OF GALE FORCE WILL INCREASE BY MON NIGHT INTO TUE AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER TEXAS SHIFTS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...ALLOWING A BRIEF RESURGENCE IN WINDS BEHIND THE WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT...FOLLOWED BY MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS WED INTO THU. SW N ATLC S OF 31N AND W OF 55W... STRONG NE WINDS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE ANTILLES HAVE DIMINISHED...WITH BUOYS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATING GENERALLY FRESH TO MODERATE NE FLOW PERSISTING MAINLY E OF 70W. THE STRONG WINDS OVER THE NW ATLANTIC HAVE GENERATED A LARGE AREA OF NORTHERLY SWELL...WITH HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 10 FT AND PERIODS OF 12 SECONDS. THIS WILL DECAY THROUGH TUESDAY BELOW 8 FT. MEANWHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT IS PUSHING OFF THE N FLORIDA COAST...EXTENDING FROM 31N80W TO NEAR DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA. THIS FRONT WILL STALL TONIGHT NOT FAR FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION...BUT PICK UP STEAM AGAIN AND MOVE EASTWARD MON NIGHT AS A REINFORCING SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THE FRONT WILL REACH A POSITION FROM 35N65W TO NEAR FORT PIERCE FLORIDA BY EARLY WED BEFORE STALLING BECOMING DIFFUSE INTO THU. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC W OF 55W... RARE LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES CONTINUE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA REMAIN WEAK ALLOWING FOR THE WEAKER GRADIENT IN PLACE. SWELL UP TO 7 FT WITH PERIODS OF 10 TO 12 SECONDS IS STARTING TO PUSH INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN FROM THE NW ATLANTIC...AS WELL AS THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS SWELL WILL DECAY THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .GALE CONDITIONS ENDING THIS AFTERNOON S OF 20N W OF 94W. $$ FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN