000 AGXX40 KNHC 300645 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 247 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... LATEST CMAN AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS OVER THE FAR W GULF INDICATE THE COLD FRONT IS EMERGING OFF THE TEXAS COAST AND AS OF 06Z EXTENDS FROM SABINE PASS TO NEAR BUOY 42020 TO JUST N OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. ELSEWHERE OVER THE W GULF BUOYS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED THE AREA OF S WINDS HAS DIMINISHED TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH SEAS IN THE 7 TO 9 FT RANGE. THE FRONT WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS EASTWARD...EXTENDING FROM SE LOUISIANA TO SW BAY OF CAMPECHE THIS EVENING AND FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE SE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY LATE SAT. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR THIS WEEKEND WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HALLOWEEN GALE FORCE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG THE COAST IN THE FAR SW GULF OF MEXICO. ALL GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING AN AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE FAR SW GULF ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST MAINLY S OF VERACRUZ MEXICO LATE SAT. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE SE ON SUN...STALLING FROM SW FLORIDA TO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM LATE SUN INTO MON. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 15 TO 20 KT OUT OF THE NE ACROSS THE GULF. A REINFORCING IMPULSE WILL PUSH INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES MON NIGHT AND TUE WITH NE WINDS FRESHENING TO 20 KT ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF. SW N ATLC S OF 31N AND W OF 55W... A STRONG COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM 28N65W TO 31N78W IS SLICING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NE PORTION OF THE ZONE WITH NE WINDS FORECAST TO FRESHEN TO 20 TO 25 KT N OF THE BOUNDARY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. AN ADDITIONAL CONCERN WILL BE LONG PERIOD SWELL OUT OF THE NORTH ARRIVING LATE TODAY WITH SEAS BUILDING GENERALLY 8 TO 12 FT IN THE ZONE AND UP TO 15 FT NEAR BERMUDA. THIS WELL DEFINED SWELL TRAIN WILL PROPAGATE SW AND REACH AS FAR SOUTH AS THE ATLANTIC PASSAGES OF THE NE CARIBBEAN LATE SUN. THE GFS/ECMWF/UKMET ALL RETROGRADE THE FRONT AND LOW PRES/ATLC GALE CENTER BACK TO THE W ON SUN...CENTERING IT NEAR BERMUDA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH PRES OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC BUILDS WESTWARD. SAME IMPULSE THAT MOVES OVER THE SE U.S. REINVIGORATES A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE SE COAST WITH INCREASING N TO NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT W OF THE FRONT. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC W OF 55W... LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION QSCAT DATA INDICATED TRADES IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AND STEADY 20 KT WINDS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND ELSEWHERE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT TONIGHT AS THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE BETWEEN ATLC HIGH PRES TO THE N AND LOW PRES OVER NRN S AMERICA WEAKENS. NE-E WINDS OF 10-15 KT WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE WEAK PRES GRADIENT REMAINING OVER THE REGION. SEAS SUBSIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE WINDS DIMINISH. LONG PERIOD 8 TO LOCALLY 10 FT SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE SW INTO THE ATLANTIC PASSAGES LATE SUN AND MON...THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE BY LATE TUE. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT S OF 21N W OF 94W. $$ FORECASTER COBB