000 AGXX40 KNHC 290708 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 300 AM EDT THU OCT 29 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A STATIONARY FRONT IS NEAR THE N GULF COAST STRETCHING FROM THE FL BIG BEND TO JUST S OF LOUISIANA TO HOUSTON TX. THIS FRONT WILL LIFT TO THE N AND PUSH INLAND THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE ATLC. SLY RETURN FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE GULF WHERE 20-25 KT WINDS WERE ALREADY INDICATED BY AN EARLY MORNING QUIKSCAT PASS AND AT BUOY 42020 SE OF CORPUS CRISTI TX. THESE SLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THRU TONIGHT...THEN WILL DIMINISH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE OFF THE TX COAST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE GULF...REACHING A POSITION FROM NEAR PANAMA CITY FL TO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA BY SAT NIGHT. STRONG NLY WINDS OF 20-30 KT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED AND PERSIST OVER THE W GULF BEHIND THE FRONT. LAST FEW MODEL RUNS HAVE CONSISTENTLY INDICATED THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE CONDITIONS IN THE FAR SW GULF /BAY OF CAMPECHE ON SAT THRU SAT NIGHT. FORECAST HAS ACCORDINGLY BEEN INCREASED TO 35 KT FOR THIS AREA. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME DIFFUSE AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVER MOST AREAS LATE SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE DOES SHOW 20-25 KT WINDS PERSISTING IN THE SW GULF THROUGH AT LEAST MON. SW N ATLC S OF 31N AND W OF 55W... 1019 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 28N68W WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT NW OVER THE SE U.S. STATES TODAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT DIVES SOUTHWARD E OF BERMUDA LATE TODAY THROUGH FRI. THE TRAILING EDGE OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS E OF 70W WITH 20 TO 25 KT NLY FLOW BEHIND IT. OTHER THAN THESE WINDS THE MAIN MARINE CONCERN WILL BE LONG PERIOD SWELL OUT OF THE NORTH ARRIVING ON FRI WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 TO 12 FT...HIGHEST E OF 70W. THIS SWELL WILL REACH AS FAR SOUTH AS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS BY LATE SUN. THE LATEST GFS SOLUTION NOW RETROGRADES THE FRONT AND LOWER PRES ASSOCIATED WITH IT BACK TO THE W ON SUN...CENTERING IT BACK S OF BERMUDA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH PRES OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC BUILDS WESTWARD. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC W OF 55W... TRADES IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE CONTINUE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT BY TONIGHT AS THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE BETWEEN ATLC HIGH PRES TO THE N AND LOW PRES OVER NRN S AMERICA WEAKENS. NE-E WINDS OF 10-15 KT WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE WEAK PRES GRADIENT REMAINING OVER THE REGION. MEANWHILE A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 68W WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING WLY SHEAR ALOFT. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 57W WILL MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN TONIGHT INTO FRI. THIS WAVE WILL ALSO WEAKEN ONCE IT ENCOUNTERS THE WLY SHEAR IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. $$ FORECASTER LEWITSKY