000 AGXX40 KNHC 281848 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 PM EDT WED OCT 28 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA TO THE CENTRAL GULF IS THE REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED INTO THE REGION YESTERDAY AND STALLED. HIGH PRES IS BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE ATLC...ALLOWING 20 KT RETURN FLOW OVER THE TEXAS COAST. THIS FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU...THEN DIMINISH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE NW GULF LATE THU/EARLY FRI MORNING THEN SHIFT E...REACHING A POSITION FROM THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA TO THE SW GULF BY LATE SAT. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PUSH SOUTH ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST BEHIND THE FRONT...REACHING AS HIGH AS 30 KT. SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE OUTPUT INDICATES SOME POTENTIAL FOR MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS IN THE FAR SOUTHERN GULF ON SAT...ALTHOUGH MOST GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS BELOW GALE. FORECAST REFLECT 30 KT FOR NOW IN THIS AREA. THE FRONT GRADUALLY BECOMES DIFFUSE AND WINDS DIMINISH AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LIFTS OUT SUN AND MON. LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SW N ATLC S OF 31N AND W OF 55W... 1020 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED S OF BERMUDA WEAKENS AND SHIFTS NW THROUGH MIDDAY THU AS A COLD FRONT DIVES SOUTHWARD EAST OF BERMUDA THU AND FRI. THE TRAILING EDGE OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT INTO THE WATERS E OF 70W...BRINGING 20 TO 25 KT NORTHERLY FLOW. THE MAIN MARINE FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE LONG PERIOD SWELL OUT OF THE NORTH ON FRI MAINLY E OF 70W WITH WAVES HEIGHTS 8 TO 12 FT...REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS BY LATE SUN. HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN ATLC OFF THE CAROLINAS BY MON. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC W OF 55W... TRADES IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE CONTINUE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN ATLC HIGH PRES TO THE N AND LOW PRES OVER NRN S AMERICA. THESE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU...THEN WILL DECREASE TO 10-15 KT THU NIGHT THROUGH SUN AS THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS. MEANWHILE A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 64W WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT THROUGH THU AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING WLY SHEAR ALOFT. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH 55W TONIGHT AND WILL MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN THU NIGHT INTO FRI. THIS WAVE WILL ALSO WEAKEN ONCE IT ENCOUNTERS THE WLY SHEAR IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. $$ FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN