000 AGXX40 KNHC 280717 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 300 AM EDT WED OCT 28 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... COLD FRONT FROM 30N88W TO 24N90W WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THERE TO 18N93W. EARLY MORNING QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED THAT THE NLY WIND SURGE HAS DIMINISHED WITH PREDOMINANT NLY WINDS NOW IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT STALLS OUT IN THE CENTRAL GULF...AND WILL THEN DISSIPATE LATER TODAY. THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS AS ATLC HIGH PRES RIDGES INTO THE E GULF AND LOWER PRES DEVELOPS OVER TEXAS. AS A RESULT RETURN FLOW SETS UP AND SLY WINDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KT OVER THE WESTERN GULF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THU NIGHT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE TEXAS COAST THU NIGHT. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT. GFS NOW HAS THE FRONT POSITIONED FROM 29N93W TO 29N97W BY FRI NIGHT AND THEN 29N89W TO 18N94W BY SAT NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CONTINUE TO THE E AS THE ATLC RIDGE WEAKENS...AND WILL STRETCH FROM THE FL PANHANDLE TO NEAR THE N YUCATAN PENINSULA SUN AFTN. STILL EXPECT A NLY WIND SURGE OF 20-25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH STRONGEST WINDS IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE GULF. SW N ATLC S OF 31N AND W OF 65W... ATLC HIGH PRES RIDGE ALONG 30/31N WILL EXPAND TO THE W OVER FL TODAY. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE NW OVER THE SE U.S. STATES TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF MID LATITUDE LOW PRES AND AN ATTENDANT STRONG COLD FRONT MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE TONIGHT THRU THU. GFS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SWATH OF 20-25 KT W-NW WINDS OVER THE NE PORTION THU THRU FRI NIGHT AS THE LOW DIVES DOWN TO THE SE THRU THE CENTRAL N ATLC. WAVEWATCH PROPAGATES NE SWELL OF 8-12 FT GENERATED BY THIS SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THE AREA FRI NIGHT THRU SUN. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA BY SUN NIGHT WITH WEAK WINDS BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND IT. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC W OF 55W... TRADES IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE CONTINUE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF 18N BETWEEN 68W AND 81W WITH A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN ATLC HIGH PRES TO THE N AND LOW PRES OVER NRN S AMERICA. THESE WINDS WILL PERSIST TODAY THROUGH THU...THEN WILL DECREASE TO 10-15 KT THU NIGHT THROUGH SUN AS THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS. MEANWHILE A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 62W WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE TO THE W THROUGH THE E CARIBBEAN TODAY BEFORE WEAKENING TONIGHT INTO THU AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING WLY SHEAR ALOFT. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH 55W TONIGHT AND WILL MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN THU NIGHT INTO FRI. THIS WAVE WILL ALSO WEAKEN ONCE IT ENCOUNTERS THE WLY SHEAR IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. $$ FORECASTER LEWITSKY