000
AGXX40 KNHC 270658
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
300 AM EDT TUE OCT 27 2009

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
COLD FRONT FROM 30N93W TO 20N96W WILL BE NEAR 30N88W TO 21N90W 
BY THIS EVENING WHERE IT WILL WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY STALL OUT. 
STRONG 20-30 KT NLY WIND SURGE OCCURRING BEHIND THE FRONT OFF 
THE TX COAST AS CAPTURED BY EARLY MORNING QUIKSCAT PASS. WINDS 
WILL DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT TONIGHT AS THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE 
FRONT QUICKLY MODIFIES OVER THE WARM GULF WATERS. THE FRONT WILL 
BECOME DIFFUSE THEN LIFT BACK TO THE N AS A WARM FRONT ON WED. 
PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS AS ATLC HIGH PRES RIDGES INTO THE E GULF 
AND AS LOW PRES AND THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACH THE W GULF FROM 
INTERIOR TX. GFS CONTINUES TO INDICATE STRONG SLY RETURN FLOW IN
THE 20-25 KT RANGE OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE GULF WED INTO THU 
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE TX 
COAST THU NIGHT AND WILL EXTEND FROM 30N88W TO 19N95W BY FRI 
EVENING. NLY WINDS BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 20-25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT 
ON FRI. THE FRONT WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT STALLS OUT IN THE 
CENTRAL GULF EXTENDING FROM THE FL PANHANDLE TO 23N97W BY SAT 
AFTERNOON.

SW N ATLC S OF 31N AND W OF 65W...
STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS OVER THE FAR WRN ATLC ALONG THE COAST 
OF NE FLORIDA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE NW AND INLAND AS A 
WARM FRONT THIS MORNING AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE STRENGTHENS ALONG
30/31N. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT JUST N OF THE AREA 
TONIGHT INTO WED. MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS 15 TO 20 KT WINDS INTO 
THE FAR NW ATLC CORNER AHEAD OF THE STALLING FRONT EARLY WED 
THEN PUSHES THE FRONT BACK INLAND AS A WARM FRONT WED AFTERNOON. 
LATEST MODEL RUNS NOW WEAKEN THE ATLC RIDGE AND MOVE A MID 
LATITUDE AREA OF LOW PRES DOWN INTO THE N CENTRAL ATLC ON THU. 
GFS INDICATES SWATH OF NE WINDS NEAR 20 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 
12 FT ON FRI IN NE SWELL IN THE NE PORTION. THESE WINDS PERSIST 
INTO SAT AND WAVEWATCH BRINGS NE SWELL OF 8-12 FT INTO A LARGE 
PORTION OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE THE NEXT COLD FRONT STALLS OUT 
NEAR 31N80W TO 29N81W SAT NIGHT WITH WEAK WINDS BOTH AHEAD OF 
AND BEHIND IT. 

CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC W OF 55W...
TRADES IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE CONTINUE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S 
OF 18N BETWEEN 66W AND 81W WITH A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN 
ATLC HIGH PRES TO THE N AND LOW PRES OVER NRN S AMERICA. THESE 
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT THEN DECREASE TO 
10 TO 15 KT WED ALL AREAS...EXCEPT N OF 15N TO S OF HISPANIOLA 
AND PUERTO RICO WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT 
THROUGH THU. MEANWHILE A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 57W WILL CONTINUE TO 
PROPAGATE TO THE W ENTERING THE E CARIBBEAN BY TONIGHT. THE WAVE 
SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE CARIBBEAN WHEN IT ENCOUNTERS 
INCREASING WLY SHEAR.

WARNINGS...

ATLC...
.NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
.NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
.NONE.

$$
FORECASTER LEWITSKY