000
AGXX40 KNHC 260646
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
245 AM EDT MON OCT 26 2009

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS OVER FAR SE PORTION OF THE GULF OF 
MEXICO EXTENDING FROM NEAR MARCO ISLAND FL TO JUST N OF THE 
YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE SRN EXTENT OF THIS FRONT WILL DISSIPATE 
LATER TODAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES OVER THE ATLC EXPANDS INTO 
THE E GULF. SLY WINDS INCREASE OVER THE W GULF LATER TODAY AND 
THEN SHIFT TO THE N-NW BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE OFF 
THE TX COAST TONIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A 
ROBUST 20-30 KT NLY WIND SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL 
WEAKEN AND STALL OUT NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF ON TUE...THEN LIFT 
BACK TO THE N AS A WARM FRONT WED AS THE PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER 
THE ATLC EXPANDS BACK INTO THE E GULF WATERS. RETURN SLY FLOW 
INCREASES WED AFTERNOON THROUGH THU AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. 
PAST FEW MODEL RUNS HAVE SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT NOW 
MOVING IT OFF THE TX COAST LATE THU NIGHT...REACHING THE CENTRAL 
GULF BY LATE FRI WHERE IT WILL THEN STALL OUT.

SW N ATLC S OF 31N AND W OF 65W...
STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE FAR WRN ATLC FROM 31N79W TO THE COAST
OF S FLORIDA. QUIKSCAT PASS AS WELL AS NEARBY BUOY AND METAR OBS
INDICATED A SMALL AND WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES WHICH QUICKLY 
DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT...NOW MOVING WELL NE OF 31N. THE FRONT 
WILL MOVE TO THE NW AND INLAND AS A WARM FRONT LATER TODAY INTO
TUE AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE STRENGTHENS ALONG 30/31N. A COLD FRONT 
WILL APPROACH THE FL/GA COAST ON WED...STALLING OUT NEAR 31N80W 
WED NIGHT...THEN WILL DISSIPATE ON THU AS THE HIGH PRES RIDGE 
REBUILDS. MODEL GUIDANCE INCREASES SLY WINDS TO 15-20 KT AHEAD 
OF THE FRONT TUE NIGHT WITH WINDS DIMINISHING BY WED AS THE 
RIDGE STRENGTHENS.

CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC W OF 55W...
TRADES IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE CONTINUE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S 
OF 17N BETWEEN 67W AND 76W WITH A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN 
ATLC HIGH PRES TO THE N AND LOW PRES OVER NRN S AMERICA. AREA OF 
FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE TRADES WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUE BUT WILL 
WEAKEN ON WED AND WED NIGHT AS THE ATLC RIDGE SHRINKS AND SHIFTS 
TO THE N. MEANWHILE A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE ATLC WILL APPROACH 
55W LATE TONIGHT. THE WAVE SHOULD WEAKEN ON TUE AS IT APPROACHES 
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AS IT ENCOUNTERS WLY SHEAR.
 
WARNINGS...

ATLC...
.NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
.NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
.NONE.

$$
FORECASTER LEWITSKY