000 AGXX40 KNHC 250713 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 PM EDT SAT OCT 24 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... STATIONARY FRONT IN PLACE OVER SE PORTION OF GULF STRETCHING FROM NEAR SARASOTA FL SW TO NEAR CANCUN MEXICO. ANY CONVECTION THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY OCCURRING HAS DIMINISHED. W OF THERE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A WIDE SOUTHERN JET OVER THE W AND CENTRAL GULF WITH MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING OVER W HALF OF GULF WITH CONVERGENT FLOW (NE AT THE SFC AND SW ALOFT). SFC HIGH PRES WILL BUILD DOWN FROM THE GULF COAST STATES TODAY. MAY HAVE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS SNEAK INTO THE FAR SE PORTION INCLUDING THE STRAITS OF FL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRES MOVES INTO S FL FROM THE S-SE. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE TEXAS COAST LATE MON. GFS CONTINUES TO BE RATHER AGGRESSIVE WITH NLY WIND SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WINDS REACHING THE 20-30 KT RANGE MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE. STRONGEST 925 MB WINDS ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN TO THE N OF THE WATERS (INLAND) SO WILL KEEP WINDS BELOW GALE FORCE FOR NOW. THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GULF BY TUE NIGHT AND STALLS OUT AND THEN LIFTS BACK TO THE N AS A WARM FRONT ON WED...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES OVER THE ATLC BUILDS INTO THE E GULF. RETURN SLY FLOW IN PLACE AND MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS 20-25 KT WINDS OVER THE W GULF WED THROUGH WED NIGHT WITH YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE TX COAST ON THU WITH STRONG NLY WINDS BEHIND IT. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC W OF 55W... A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THIS FRONT WILL DISSIPATE LATER TODAY INTO MON. TRADES IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE CONTINUE S OF 16N FROM 63W TO 75W...AND WILL PROGRESS TO THE W ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN TODAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE ATLC RIDGE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NE...TIGHTENING THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE BASIN. WINDS DECREASE TO BELOW 20 KT WED THROUGH THU ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AS THE ATLC HIGH AND RIDGE WEAKEN AND SHIFT BACK TO THE N. MEANWHILE A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE ATLC WILL APPROACH 55W MON. WAVE SHOULD WEAKEN ON TUE AS IT APPROACHES THE NE S AMERICA COAST AND LEEWARD ISLANDS AS IT ENCOUNTERS WLY SHEAR. SW N ATLC S OF 31N AND W OF 65W... SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND THE E COAST OF FL WILL MERGE WITH A STATIONARY FRONT OVER FL AS IT PROGRESSES TO THE W-NW. SE FL RADARS SHOWING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS INTO FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA WHERE IT WILL LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES REMAINS STRETCHED OUT ALONG 31N. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SE U.S. COAST LATE TUE AND GFS BRINGS S-SW WINDS TO 20-25 KT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT BUT KEEPS THE ACTUAL FRONT N OF THE AREA. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. $$ FORECASTER LEWITSKY