000 AGXX40 KNHC 230729 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 AM EDT FRI OCT 23 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... THE HIGH PRES RIDGE THAT WAS OVER THE GULF STATES HAS SHIFTED TO THE E...NOW LOCATED OFF THE SE U.S. COAST...AS A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES S INTO THE CENTRAL GULF CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE E. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STRONG S FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT DUE TO A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL BUILD SEAS TO AROUND 8 FT INVOF THE FRONT. FRESH NW-N WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE NW GULF WITH WINDS TO 20 KT. THE FRONT WILL SLOW AND EVENTUALLY BECOME STATIONARY FROM THE FL BIG BEND SW INTO THE CENTRAL GULF LATER TODAY INTO SAT. THE FRONT WILL THEN LINGER ACROSS THAT AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 20 KT AND SEAS SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 8 FT AS THE THERMAL GRADIENT DIMINISHES WITH THE FRONT BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC W OF 55W... A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK STEERING OVER THE AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO WHETHER THIS FEATURE COULD FURTHER DEVELOP AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. DEVELOPMENT IF ANY WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR. AN AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED FROM THE N COLOMBIAN COAST TO S OF 14N WITH CONVERGENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR CUBA AND S FLOW OVER VENEZUELA. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES OVER THE BASIN THROUGH SAT INCREASE SUN AS THE TROUGH OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN BEGINS TO DRIFT TO THE N AND THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE AREA TIGHTENS. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE N ATLANTIC WATERS BORDER FROM THE E BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. SW N ATLC S OF 31N AND W OF 65W... HIGH PRES CENTERED EAST OF THE S CAROLINA COAST WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE E AS A COLD FRONT OVER THE SE U.S. STATES APPROACHES THE COAST. QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED A SWATH OF STRONG NE TO E BREEZE AROUND THE S PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH TO THE N... EXTENDING INTO STRAITS OF FLORIDA. MEANWHILE A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SE BAHAMAS TO THE SW OVER CENTRAL CUBA AND IS PRODUCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION. THE HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE FORCED TO THE E SUN AS THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE SE U.S. STATES PUSHES OFFSHORE AND STALLS OUT NEAR THE GULF STREAM THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. STRONG NW BREEZE SETS UP BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH WILL BUILDS SEAS TO 10 FT OFF THE SE U.S. COAST LATE SAT INTO SUN. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. $$ FORECASTER LEWITSKY