000
AGXX40 KNHC 200629
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
235 AM EDT TUE OCT 20 2009

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE SE CONUS EXTENDS A RIDGE SW OVER THE 
ENTIRE GULF REGION. STRONG NE WINDS AROUND 20-25 KT CONTINUE 
OVER THE SE HALF OF THE GULF WITH SEAS OF UP TO 9 FT ACROSS THE 
YUCATAN CHANNEL. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND LOWER PRES 
OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WILL PRODUCE A BELT OF 20 KT EAST WINDS 
OVER THE E AND CENTRAL GULF...INCLUDING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA  
TODAY AND WED. THIS HIGH PRES WILL GRADUALLY MOVE E THROUGH THU 
WITH WINDS BECOMING SE TO S ACROSS THE GULF REGION. ANOTHER COLD 
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW GULF ON THU AND EXTEND 
FROM SE LOUISIANA TO THE NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO FRI MORNING AND 
FROM NW FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SAT. SLY WIND WILL 
INCREASE TO 20 KT N OF 25N AHEAD OF THE FRONT. NLY WINDS OF 
20-25 KT AND SEAS 8 TO 10 FT ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE 
FRONT.

CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC W OF 55W...
STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM EASTERN CUBA TO 
HONDURAS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. NLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE 
STILL NOTED BEHIND THE FRONT PER A QSCAT PASS. A BROAD AREA OF 
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING 
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS 
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING 
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT DRIFTS NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A LOW 
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A 
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ELY TRADES 15-20 KT 
OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL DECREASE TO BELOW 20 KT 
TODAY. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 
PORTION OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THE WAVE WILL ENTER THE 
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TUE MORNING AND WILL BE ABSORBED BY THE LOW 
PRES OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN LATE THU. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL 
REACH THE TROPICAL N ATLC LATE WED AND THE E CARIBBEAN LATE THU.

SW N ATLC S OF 31N AND W OF 65W...
STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHES FROM 31N65W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE 
THEN CONTINUES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. N TO NE WINDS OF 20 TO 
25 KT AND SEAS TO 10 FT ARE OBSERVED W OF THE FRONT. THE 
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD WHILE 
THE SOUTHERN PORTION WILL BECOME DIFFUSE LATE TUE. HIGH PRES 
WILL BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT PRODUCING STRONG NE TO E WINDS N OF 
AROUND 25N THROUGH THU THEN DECREASE ON FRI. ANOTHER COLD FRONT 
WILL APPROACH THE SE U.S. COAST SAT WITH SW WINDS INCREASING TO 
20-25 KT N OF 27N W OF 73W BY SAT. THE FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW 
CORNER OF THE AREA SAT EVENING.

WARNINGS...

ATLC...
.NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
.NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
.NONE.

$$
FORECASTER GR