000
AGXX40 KNHC 171754
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT OCT 17 2009

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
STRONG COLD FRONT EXTEND FROM 26N82W TO 23N90W TO 19N96W MOVE SE 
AND REACH FROM 25N80W TO NE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT THEN OUT 
OF AREA SUN.  STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS N OF FRONT QUICKLY 
DIMINISH TO A FRESH BREEZE LATE MON WITH SEAS SUBSIDING FROM 15 
TO 6 FT BY TUE UNDER BROAD HIGH PRES THAT BUILDS OVER SE STATES.
MODERATE S RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS W OF 96W WED IN ADVANCE OF NEXT 
COLD FRONT ACROSS TEXAS.  MODEL GUIDANCE HAS HAD A GOOD HANDLE 
ON WIND AND SEAS ON THIS EVENT ALONG WITH GOOD TIMING.

CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC W OF 55W...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 77W IN WESTERN CARIBBEAN MOVING W AT 15 KT 
WILL MERGE INTO COLD FRONT CROSSING YUCATAN PASSAGE SUN WITH 
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR ABUNDANT CONVECTION IN ADDITION 
TO STRONG N WINDS.  SEAS EXPECTED TO TOP 9-10 FT SUN AND MON 
THEN SUBSIDE QUICKLY AS WINDS DIMINISH.  FRONT BECOME STATIONARY 
LATE MON STRETCHING FROM E CUBA TO COAST OF NICARAGUA.  TIGHT 
GRADIENT NEAR FRONT TO SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS OVER 
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS FRONT DISSIPATE TUE 
AND WED.

SW N ATLC S OF 31N AND W OF 65W...
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N75W TO 25N80W WITH STRONG TO NEAR 
GALE FORCE WINDS BEHIND IT AND SEAS TO 12 FT SUN SUBSIDING 
QUICKLY SUN NIGHT AND MON.  FRONT MOVE E AND EXTEND FROM 31N70W 
TO E CUBA LATE SUN THEN FROM 31N66W TO E CUBA LATE MON.  BY WED 
FRONT BECOMES DIFFUSE AND HIGH PRES THAT BUILT OVER GULF OF 
MEXICO DRIFT E OVER SW N ATLC WITH AXIS ALONG 31N.   

WARNINGS...

ATLC...
.NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
.NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
.NONE.

$$
FORECASTER WALLY BARNES