000 AGXX40 KNHC 170721 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 325 AM EDT SAT OCT 17 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A STRONG COLD FRONT FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR EXTENDING FROM 27N82W TO 25N90W TO 24N97W WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE ACROSS THE GULF REGION AND EXTEND FROM SW FLORIDA TO TAMPICO EARLY THIS MORNING...AND FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO NE YUCATAN LATE TODAY AND SE OF AREA SUN WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTH BEHIND IT. A QSCAT PASS FROM AROUND 0000 UTC SHOWED NLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WHILE NOAA BUOY 42002 NEAR 26N94W INDICATED COMBINED SEA HEIGHT OF 10 FT. A HIGH PRES RIDGE IS BUILDING IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT OVER GULF COAST STATES. THIS RIDGE WILL MOVE EWD TOWARD THE SE CONUS SUN THROUGH WED. AS A RESULT...SLY RETURN FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO ESTABLISH TUE AND WED W OF 95W ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC W OF 55W... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 75W WILL REACH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SUN MORNING. THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL LATE TODAY AND EXTEND FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS LATE SUN. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY LATE MONDAY STRETCHING FROM E CUBA TO THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. NLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT AND BUILDING SEAS TO 10 FT WILL FOLLOW THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TODAY BEHIND THE TROPICAL WAVE AS THE ATLANTIC HIGH BUILDS SW ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN. AN EARLIER QSCAT PASS ALONG WITH NOAA BUOY 42050 SHOWED ELY WINDS OF 20 KT OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. NOAA WAVE WATCH III GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SEAS WILL BRIEFLY BUILD TO 9 FT LATE TODAY INTO SUN MORNING PARTICULARLY S OF 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 76W...THEN SUBSIDE TO 7 OR 8 FT BY MON. A VOLCANIC ASHFALL ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT WITHIN 120 NM NW QUADRANT OF SOUFRIERE HILLS VOLCANO MONTSERRAT AT 16.7N 62.2W. ACCORDING TO VAAC IN WASHINGTON AT 0423 UTC...ASH ESTIMATED AT FL180 BECOMING HARD TO DISCERN IN IMAGERY TO THE E-SE OF PUERTO RICO. LOWER LEVEL ASH BELOW FL100 NOT OBSERVED IN NIGHTTIME IMAGERY. SW N ATLC S OF 31N AND W OF 65W... A COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA. AT 17/0600 UTC...THE FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N75W TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR THE TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE E AND EXTEND FROM 31N75W TO STRAITS OF FLORIDA LATE SAT AND FROM 31N71W TO E CUBA LATE SUN...THEN EXTEND FROM 31N65W TO E-CENTRAL CUBA LATE MON. STRONG SW BREEZE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT NW BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT. NLY WINDS OF 20 KT AND SEAS IN THE 6 TO 8 FT RANGE ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA ON SUNDAY. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .VOLCANIC ASHFALL ADVISORY...AMZ086 GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. $$ FORECASTER GR