000
AGXX40 KNHC 141743
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED OCT 14 2009

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

AN E TO W RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL SHIFT S TO ALONG 25N 
FRI. A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NW GULF THU NIGHT 
EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO NEAR SE TEXAS LATE FRI 
AND SW FLORIDA TO THE NE BAY OF CAMPECHE EARLY SAT THEN MOVES SE 
OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT. MODELS SLIGHTLY MORE AGGRESSIVE AGAIN 
WITH CAA AND I BUMPED UP NLY WINDS TO 20-30 KT BEHIND THE COLD 
FRONT SAT INTO SUN...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING BELOW 20 KT MON 
NIGHT. MAX SEAS 14 FT SW GULF ON SUN. 

ATLC COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE E OVER WATERS E OF 65W BUT STALL 
ALONG 28N W OF 65W TONIGHT. FRONT RETURNS NE THU AND THU NIGHT 
WITH THE GRADIENT INCREASING WINDS TO AT LEAST 20 KT BOTH SIDES 
OF THE DEVELOPING WARM FRONT. THE WARM FRONT WILL PASS BERMUDA 
AROUND SUNRISE FRI. SLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALL WATERS N OF 
BAHAMAS WITH NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT SLIPPING OFF GA COAST AROUND 
SUNSET FRI BUT QUICKLY REINFORCED BY A STRONGER COLD PUSH FRI 
NIGHT AND POSSIBLY A SECOND NLY SURGE LATE SAT. FRONT SHOULD 
REACH FROM BERMUDA TO NE CUBA LATE MON NIGHT. NLY WINDS BRIEFLY 
INCREASE TO 20 KT BEHIND THE FRONT SPREADING S TO THE NW BAHAMAS 
SUN NIGHT.

A SMALL AREA OF ENHANCED WINDS TO 20 KT ALONG COAST OF COLOMBIA 
THIS AFTERNOON BUT EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO BELOW 20 KT 
TONIGHT AS THE ATLC RIDGE WEAKENS. GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH ELY 
FLOW INCREASING TO 20 KT ALONG 55W LATE THU...WITH THESE 
CONDITIONS SPREADING W INTO E CARIBBEAN LATE FRI AND TO THE 
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN LATE SUN. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO YUCATAN 
CHANNEL AROUND SUNRISE SUN STALLING FROM NE CUBA TO BELIZE MON.

WARNINGS...

ATLC...
.NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
.NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
.NONE.

$$
FORECASTER NELSON