000 AGXX40 KNHC 121734 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO...A FRONTAL TROUGH HAS MOVED N AND W OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS FROM THE FL BIG BEND TO NE TX AND OVER THE TX COASTAL WATERS S OF GLS. WEAK HIGH PRES EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NE GULF AS EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG ATLC RIDGE THAT EXTENDS ACROSS EXTREME N FL. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT S TO ALONG 27N WED AND ALONG 25N FRI. SLY RETURN FLOW APPEARS TO REMAIN AT 10 TO 15 KT THROUGH THU NIGHT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES NW WATERS LATE THU NIGHT THEN RACES E TO PSN FROM FL BIG BEND TO NE OLD MEXICO FRI AFTERNOON ACCOMPANIED BY N WINDS MAXING AT 25 KT. SLY FLOW MAY REACH 25 KT N OF 28N BRIEFLY JUST AHEAD OF FRONT. THIS FRONT SHOULD MOVE S OF ALL GULF WATERS BY SUNSET SAT. SEAS LIKELY REACH MAX OF 12 FT BAY OF CAMPECHE SAT NIGHT. SUBTROPICAL SW N ATLC... A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE WATERS JUST OFFSHORE NE FL WILL MEANDER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRES SW OF BERMUDA HAS RIDGE W ALONG 29N E OF THE FRONT ATTM...BUT THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT S TO ALONG 28N EARLY TONIGHT AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT...NOTE MUCH SOONER THAN EXPECTED...AND SHOULD OVERRUN ANY REMNANTS OF THE STATIONARY FRONT...WITH THE MERGED BOUNDARY RACING E AND PASSING THROUGH THE WATERS S OF BERMUDA TUE NIGHT THEN ABRUPTLY STALLING. BOUNDARY RETURNS NE AS WARM FRONT BEGINNING WED NIGHT JUST E OF N FL WITH SLY FLOW INCREASING TO AT LEAST 25 KT BETWEEN 27N AND THE WARM BOUNDARY. SW CONTINUE ALL WATERS N OF BAHAMAS FRI WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE GA COAST FRI NIGHT AND REACHING THE NW BAHAMAS SAT. CURRENTLY ELY WINDS AT 15-20 KT S OF 24N E OF 75W WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. AS RIDGE SHIFTS S THE ELY WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT TUE NIGHT BECOMING SE WED NIGHT AND SE-SW THU THROUGH EARLY SAT WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE SE FL COAST AND ACROSS THE BAHAMA CHANNEL SAT AFTERNOON. PLEASURE CRAFT SHOULD PLAN FOR NLY WINDS BETWEEN FL AND NW BAHAMAS ON RETURN TRIP NEXT SUN AND MON. TROPICS...A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 84W THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN MOVING W AT LEAST 15 KT AND THIS MOTION SHOULD MOVE THE WAVE AXIS THROUGH THE GULF OF HONDURAS BY LATE MORNING TUE. FRONTAL TROUGH LYING E-W ALONG 17N SHOULD DISSIPATE TUE. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE ALONG ABOUT 47W ATTM MOVING W AT 15 KT SHOULD REACH ALONG 55W TUE AFTERNOON AND ALONG 67W THU AND 77W SAT. ELY TRADES SEEM TO GRADUALLY RELAX THROUGH MID WEEK INCREASING AGAIN IN WAKE OF THIS SECOND TROPICAL WAVE. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. $$ FORECASTER NELSON