000 AGXX40 KNHC 101756 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO...THE COLD FRONT IS STALLING FROM MS DELTA TO S CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE. WINDS PERHAPS A TAD STRONGER THAN EXPECTED WITH SCAT PASS SHOWING A FEW 30 KT BARBS. THUS BUMPED UP NLY WINDS TO 20-30 KT IN TEXT HIGH SEAS THIS MORNING...AND SW GULF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISHING EARLY TONIGHT TO 10-15 KT FROM N-NE...EXCEPT FROM NW-N WATERS S OF 25N...ALL W OF QUASI STATIONARY FRONT. HIGH PRES DEVELOPS OVER NE GULF ALONG ATLC RIDGE LATE SUN WITH RIDGE W EXTENDING ALONG 28N. AS RIDGE BUILDS W IT WILL PUSH THE FRONTAL REMNANTS W AND NW INLAND BY SUNSET TUE. FRONTAL REMNANTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAINS WITH ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE ARRIVING ALONG 31N TO THE E OF 90W LATE WED...THEN DRIFTING SE OVER THE EXTREME NE GULF LATE THU. THIS SCENARIO LATE IN FORECAST PERIOD AND HAVE LITTLE CONFIDENCE ATTM. IN THE MEANTIME THE E-W RIDGE WILL SHIFT S ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS WITH RETURN FLOW NOT INCREASING TO 15-20 KT TILL THU NIGHT...AGAIN LITTLE CONFIDENCE 6 DAYS OUT. SUBTROPICAL SW N ATLC... NLY SWELLS WITH COMBINED SEAS TO 5-8 FT OVER AREA E OF 65W WILL SUBSIDE FROM THE N BEGINNING ON SUN NIGHT. A RIDGE EXTENDING E-W OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS WILL MEANDER THROUGH TUE...SHIFTING S TO ALONG 26N WED. SW TO W FLOW WILL INCREASE N OF THE RIDGE WED NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF NEXT FRONT ARRIVING ALONG 31N THU MORNING. FRONT SHOULD STALL ALONG 27-28N THU NIGHT. AN INVERTED TROUGH... REMNANTS OF TC HENRI...TO THE S OF 23N BETWEEN 70W AND 65W WILL FINALLY FILL IN BY LATE TONIGHT. NE-E WINDS WELL S OF THE RIDGE WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT THEN WEAKEN AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTHWARD. TROPICS...AN AREA FROM 12N-17N OF ELY WINDS AT 15-20 KT IN WAKE OF TROPICAL WAVE...NOW W OF AREA OVER THE YUCATAN...SHOULD DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT OVER CARIBBEAN WATERS W OF 80W ON SUN. MODEL GUIDANCE FLUCTUATING ON STRENGTH OF ELY TRADES THEREAFTER SO WILL GO WITH THE NORMAL 15-20 KT S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT THE LOCALLY ENHANCED 20-25 KT ALONG N COAST S AMERICA...THROUGH MON THEN GRADIENT WILL RELAX A LITTLE THROUGH THU. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 72W THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN MOVING W AT 17 KT AND THIS MOTION SHOULD MOVE THE WAVE AXIS TO ALONG 80W SUN AND THROUGH THE GULF OF HONDURAS BY SUNRISE TUE. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION REMAINS S OF 13N E OF WAVE. SUBSIDING NNE SWELLS COULD REACH EXPOSED NE ATLC PASSAGES AS EARLY AS LATE SUN NIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS N OF 18N E OF 65W WILL TURN TO NE AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT TONIGHT AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT DRIFTS SLOWLY S EVENTUALLY STALLING ALONG 17-18N. AS THE NLY WINDS INCREASE BEHIND FRONT...NLY SWELLS WILL ALSO ARRIVE WITH COMBINED SEAS INCREASING TO 8 FT ALONG 21N AROUND SUNRISE MON. THE NLY SWELL WILL PUSH S REACHING THE N COAST S AMERICA MON NIGHT MIXING WITH THE NE TRADE GENERATED SWELL. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 40W ATTM MOVING W AT 15 KT SHOULD REACH ALONG 55W MON NIGHT AND ALONG 65W WED AND 75W LATE THU. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. $$ FORECASTER NELSON